Progressive

PGR · NYSE · Financials · Financials, fiscal 2016 to 2025

PGR · Last close · October 26, 2026

$229.25

Progressive's revenue rose 16.3% to $87.7 billion in fiscal 2025. Its net margin was 12.9%, up from 11.2% a year earlier. Free cash flow was $17.2 billion, up 15.9%. It paid out $2.9 billion in dividends and buybacks, 17% of free cash flow.

PROGRESSIVE CORP/OH/ Latest fiscal year ended December 31, 2025 10-K filed March 2, 2026 · 0000080661-26-000086 Updated October 9, 2026

Revenue

$87.7B

16.3%

Net margin

12.9%

1.7 pts

Net income

$11.3B

33.4%

Free cash flow

$17.2B

15.9%

Return on capital

39.2%

8.7 pts

Market cap

$133.9B

Oct 26 close

P/E

11.5x

On $19.94 EPS, 4 qtrs

Net margin is net income as a share of revenue. Free cash flow is cash from operations minus capital spending. Return on capital is after-tax operating income as a share of the money invested in the business: debt plus equity, minus cash. Market cap is the last closing share price times the latest diluted share count, so it is approximate. P/E is the last close divided by diluted earnings per share over the last four quarters, or the latest fiscal year where the quarters aren't available; there is none when the company made a loss.

About these figures. Debt is the total of Progressive's long-term and short-term debt as its filings tag it.

What Progressive does

Progressive is an insurance holding company. Its insurance subsidiaries sell personal and commercial auto insurance, home and renters insurance, and coverage for motorcycles, boats and other recreational vehicles. They also sell business insurance, mostly to small businesses, including general liability and commercial property, workers' compensation insurance for the transportation industry, and other specialty coverage. It operates throughout the United States.

Insurers earn money from premiums customers pay, less the claims and costs of running the business, and from investing the premiums until claims are paid. Progressive's Personal Lines segment, which sells personal auto, special vehicle and residential property insurance, brought in 87% of its net premiums written in 2025. Personal auto is its largest product. It says it ranked second in U.S. private passenger auto insurance by premiums written, in a market with about 230 competitors.

Its insurance and claims operations are managed state by state, because insurance is regulated by each state, and supported by national operations. In California it runs a separate agency auto organization.

Its biggest risks, as it describes them

Pricing risks and setting aside loss reserves accurately, since errors could make its results worse.
Severe weather and other catastrophes, including effects of climate change, on its results.
Predicting its reinsurance needs and getting enough reinsurance coverage.
Highly competitive property and casualty insurance markets and rivals' new initiatives.
Adjusting claims accurately, and following a complex set of laws and regulations.

From Progressive's annual report on Form 10-K, filed March 2, 2026, in our words; the 10-K has the full description and every risk factor. Updated with each new 10-K.

Charts show fiscal years, from the 10-K filings.

Revenue and margins

Revenue

US$ billions, fiscal years

Margins

Percent of revenue

GrossOperatingNetFree cash flow

Net income and earnings per share

From fiscal 2016 to 2025, earnings per share grew 30.4% a year and net income 30.5% a year, as new shares raised the share count by 1% and diluted each share's earnings.

Net income

US$ billions, fiscal years; loss years in red.

Diluted earnings per share

US$ per share, fiscal years, restated for any stock splits; loss years in red.

Returns on capital

Return on capital and on equity

Percent. Return on capital is after-tax operating income over the money invested in the business (debt plus equity, minus cash); return on equity is net income over shareholders' equity. Both use the average of opening and closing balances.

Return on capitalReturn on equity

Cash flow

Free cash flow

US$ billions. Cash from operations minus capital expenditure; negative years in red.

Payouts and share count

Dividends and buybacks

US$ billions, cash paid in each fiscal year

DividendsShare buybacks

Diluted share count

Weighted-average diluted shares, millions

Valuation

Two ways to value Progressive yourself, both starting from its filings: a discounted cash flow model and the price-to-earnings method.

Discounted cash flow (DCF)

A discounted cash flow (DCF) model values a business as the cash it may generate in future, discounted back to today. The starting figures come from Progressive's 10-K (or, for net cash and shares, its latest 10-Q) and the assumptions are yours: start from one of three example scenarios, then change any figure to see what it implies for a share, and how that compares with the last share price.

Value per share on three example scenarios, from Progressive's fiscal 2025 free cash flow of $17.2B, net cash of $3.2B at December 31, 2025 and 588 million diluted shares, from its filings. The scenarios are fitted to Progressive: the base scenario's growth in years 1 to 5 is its revenue growth over the last 3 years, 20.9% a year, kept between 0% and 20%; the cautious and optimistic ones are lower and higher, and growth in years 6 to 10 is halfway to the long-run rate. The base scenario's discount rate is 7% for a stable business (Property & Casualty Insurance); the cautious and optimistic ones use a point more and a point less. Select one to load it into the calculator. These are the model's arithmetic on those assumptions, not a forecast or a price target.

From the filings

Starting free cash flow, US$ millions

Cash from operations minus capital spending in fiscal 2025.

Net cash, US$ millions

Cash and short-term investments minus debt and finance leases at December 31, 2025. Negative means net debt.

Diluted shares, millions

Weighted-average diluted shares in fiscal 2025.

Your assumptions

Start from

Fitted to Progressive's own revenue growth, as above. Cautious: growth of 10% then 6% a year, 2% after year 10, a 8% discount rate. Base: growth of 20% then 11% a year, 2.5% after year 10, a 7% discount rate. Optimistic: growth of 25% then 14% a year, 3% after year 10, a 6% discount rate.

Free cash flow growth, years 1 to 5 (% a year)

Free cash flow growth, years 6 to 10 (% a year)

Growth after year 10 (% a year)Long-run growth forever after year 10. Usually close to inflation, and always below the discount rate.

Discount rate (% a year)The yearly return an investor wants for the risk. A higher rate gives a lower value.

Value per share on these assumptions

—

Last close, October 26, 2026: $229.25
Value on these assumptions, against the last close: —

Cash flows in years 1 to 10, valued today: —
Everything after year 10, valued today: —
Plus net cash: —
Share of value from after year 10: —

Projected free cash flow

US$ billions. Each column is one year's projected free cash flow, split into what it is worth today and the part removed by discounting.

Value todayRemoved by discounting

How the value changes with two assumptions

Value per share in US$, with the growth rates above. The highlighted cell matches the current assumptions.

How the model works. Free cash flow grows at the first rate for five years and the second rate for five more, and each year is discounted at the discount rate. Everything after year 10 is valued as year-10 cash flow × (1 + growth after year 10) ÷ (discount rate − growth after year 10), discounted back ten years. Net cash is added and the total is divided by diluted shares. The result depends entirely on the assumptions. It is not a forecast, a price target or a recommendation. The last close is the consolidated US closing price, from Databento.

Price-to-earnings (P/E) method

Another common way to value a company is to multiply its earnings per share by a price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple: the number of years of today's earnings an investor pays for a share. A higher multiple usually means investors expect earnings to grow. Choose a multiple, for example from similar companies, to see the value it gives.

Value per share on three example scenarios, from Progressive's earnings per share of $19.94 (over the last four quarters). Each grows earnings for a year at the cash flow scenarios' rates and applies a multiple to next year's earnings: 11.5×, the middle of Progressive's own P/E today, its peers' median and its sector's median (Progressive's own P/E today) for the base scenario, 20% less and more for the cautious and optimistic ones. The price is brought back a year at 8%, 7% and 6%. Select one to load it into the calculator. These are the model's arithmetic on those assumptions, not a forecast or a price target.

Earnings per share, US$

Diluted earnings per share over the four quarters to June 30, 2026, from the 10-Qs and 10-K.

P/E multiple

P/E today is the last close divided by the latest earnings per share, the four quarters' where available. Peers: Allstate, Chubb, Travelers Companies, Hartford.

Earnings growth in the years ahead (% a year) Starts at Progressive's revenue growth over the last 3 years, 20.9% a year, kept between 0% and 20%, as the base scenario does.

Earnings per share in the years ahead, US$

Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5

Type your own estimate for any year; the years after it carry on at the growth rate.

Apply the multiple to earnings

A multiple on a future year's earnings gives the price then, brought back to today at the discount rate below.

Discount rate (% a year) The yearly return an investor wants for the risk, as in the cash flow model.

Value per share today at this multiple

—

Last close, October 26, 2026: $229.25
Value at this multiple, against the last close: —
Progressive's P/E at the last close: 11.5×

Company	Last close	Earnings per share	P/E today
ChubbCB	$356.74	$28.29	12.6×
ProgressivePGR	$229.25	$19.94	11.5×
Travelers CompaniesTRV	$400.17	$38.06	10.5×
HartfordHIG	$135.94	$16.52	8.2×
AllstateALL	$255.95	$50.08	5.1×

How the P/E method works. Value per share is earnings per share times the multiple. On a future year's earnings, that gives the price in that year, which is brought back to today at the discount rate: price ÷ (1 + discount rate) for each year ahead. It is quick and easy to compare across companies, but it ignores debt and cash, and earnings can swing with one-off gains and charges, so a multiple says most about steady, profitable businesses. Like the cash flow model, the result depends entirely on the assumptions you choose. It is not a forecast, a price target or a recommendation.

Balance sheet

Fiscal year end	FY21	FY22	FY23	FY24	FY25
Cash and short-term investments	1.1	3.1	1.9	0.8	10.1
Debt incl. finance leases	4.9	6.4	6.9	6.9	6.9
Net debt (negative means net cash)	3.8	3.3	5.0	6.1	−3.2
Net debt to EBITDA	0.8x	2.2x	0.9x	0.5x	−0.2x
Debt to equity	0.3x	0.4x	0.3x	0.3x	0.2x
Interest coverage	20.3x	4.8x	19.3x	39.4x	52.2x
Current ratio	—	—	—	—	—
Quick ratio	—	—	—	—	—

US$ billions unless stated, at each fiscal year end. Net debt to EBITDA is debt minus cash, divided by operating income before depreciation and amortization: roughly how many years of those earnings the net debt equals. Debt to equity is debt as a multiple of shareholders' equity. Interest coverage is operating income divided by interest expense. The current ratio is current assets over current liabilities; the quick ratio leaves out inventory.

Insider trades

Over the 12 months between October 27, 2025 and October 26, 2026, no insider bought Progressive shares on the open market, and 12 insiders sold $31.3 million, $29.4 million of it under trading plans set up in advance.

Date	Insider	Trade	Shares	Price	Value	Filing
Oct 22, 2026	Steven BrozChief Information Officer	Sold plan	1,225	$223.32	$273,567	Form 4
Sep 24, 2026	Steven BrozChief Information Officer	Sold plan	1,225	$204.29	$250,255	Form 4
Sep 1, 2026	Susan Patricia GriffithPresident and CEO, Director	Sold plan	37,338	$219.50	$8.2 million	Form 4
Aug 20, 2026	Steven BrozChief Information Officer	Sold plan	1,225	$219.40	$268,765	Form 4
Aug 13, 2026	Lori A NiederstChief Personal Lines Officer	Sold plan	7,339	$209.29	$1.5 million	Form 4
Jul 28, 2026	Andrew J QuiggVP and Chief Financial Officer	Sold plan	3,499	$220.00	$769,780	Form 4
Jul 27, 2026	Susan Patricia GriffithPresident and CEO, Director	Sold plan	37,338	$212.71	$7.9 million	Form 4
Jul 27, 2026	Karen BailoCommercial Lines President	Sold plan	8,452	$212.71	$1.8 million	Form 4
Jul 27, 2026	John Jo MurphyClaims President	Sold plan	8,124	$212.70	$1.7 million	Form 4
Jul 27, 2026	Jonathan S. BauerChief Investment Officer	Sold plan	2,242	$212.71	$476,896	Form 4
Jul 23, 2026	Steven BrozChief Information Officer	Sold plan	1,156	$205.17	$237,177	Form 4
Jun 24, 2026	Jeffrey D KellyDirector	Sold	7,000	$216.33	$1.5 million	Form 4

The latest 12 of 27 trades. Open-market purchases and sales by officers, directors and 10% owners, from their Form 4 filings with the SEC: one row per person, day and filing, at the day's average price. Grants, option exercises and shares withheld for tax aren't counted. Insiders buy and sell for many reasons, such as taxes, spreading their savings or a plan set up months earlier, so a trade on its own says little about where a company is heading. For information only, not investment advice. Insider trades at all companies

Piotroski F-score

The F-score counts how many of nine simple tests of profitability, funding and efficiency a company passed in a year (Piotroski, 2000). The more tests passed, the stronger the year: 8 or 9 is strong, 0 to 2 weak. Companies that report no gross profit are scored on the other eight.

Test	FY23	FY24	FY25
Net income is positive	Pass	Pass	Pass
Cash from operations is positive	Pass	Pass	Pass
Return on assets rose	Pass	Pass	Pass
Cash from operations exceeds net income	Pass	Pass	Pass
Debt fell relative to assets	Pass	Pass	Pass
Current ratio rose	—	—	—
Share count didn't rise	Fail	Fail	Fail
Gross margin rose	—	—	—
Revenue rose relative to assets	Pass	Pass	Fail
F-score	—	—	—
Accruals ratio	−8.2%	−6.8%	−5.5%

The accruals ratio is net income minus cash from operations, over average total assets.

Compare

Put Progressive side by side with any other company we cover: revenue, growth, margins, cash flow and returns, with ten years of charts.

Similar companies

Company	Year	Revenue growth	Operating margin	Free cash flow margin	Return on capital	Net debt to EBITDA	F-score	Compare
Progressive	FY25	16.3%	—	19.6%	39.2%	−0.2x	—
Allstate	FY25	5.6%	—	14.6%	37.3%	0.1x	—	Compare
Chubb	FY25	6.5%	—	—	13.6%	—	—	Compare
Travelers Companies	FY25	5.2%	—	—	20.1%	0.3x	—	Compare
Hartford	FY25	6.9%	—	20.3%	22.6%	−0.0x	—	Compare

Each company's latest fiscal year. Fiscal years end in different months, so the periods don't line up exactly. Free cash flow margin is free cash flow as a share of revenue. Net debt to EBITDA is explained under the balance sheet, and the F-score above.

10 years of figures

Fiscal year	FY16	FY17	FY18	FY19	FY20	FY21	FY22	FY23	FY24	FY25
Income statement
Revenue	23.4	26.8	32.0	39.0	42.7	47.7	49.6	62.1	75.4	87.7
Revenue growth	12.4%	14.5%	19.1%	22.0%	9.3%	11.8%	4.0%	25.2%	21.4%	16.3%
Gross profit	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Research and development	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Operating income	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Net income	1.0	1.6	2.6	4.0	5.7	3.4	0.7	3.9	8.5	11.3
Diluted EPS (US$)	1.76	2.72	4.42	6.72	9.66	5.66	1.18	6.58	14.40	19.23
Diluted shares (millions)	585	586	587	587	588	587	587	588	588	588
Cash flow
Cash from operations	2.7	3.8	6.3	6.3	6.9	7.8	6.8	10.6	15.1	17.5
Capital expenditure	0.2	0.2	0.3	0.4	0.2	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3
Free cash flow	2.5	3.6	6.0	5.9	6.7	7.5	6.6	10.4	14.8	17.2
Dividends paid	0.5	0.4	0.7	1.6	1.6	3.7	0.2	0.2	0.7	2.9
Share buybacks	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Acquisitions	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Stock-based compensation	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.1	0.1	0.1
Balance sheet at fiscal year end
Cash and short-term investments	3.8	3.1	1.9	2.0	5.3	1.1	3.1	1.9	0.8	10.1
Debt incl. finance leases	3.1	3.3	4.4	4.4	5.4	4.9	6.4	6.9	6.9	6.9
Total assets	33.4	38.7	46.6	54.9	64.1	71.1	75.5	88.7	105.7	123.0
Total liabilities	25.0	28.9	35.5	41.0	47.1	52.9	59.6	68.4	80.2	92.7
Shareholders' equity	8.0	9.3	10.8	13.7	17.0	18.2	15.9	20.3	25.6	30.3
Margins and ratios
Gross margin	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Operating margin	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Net margin	4.4%	5.9%	8.2%	10.2%	13.4%	7.0%	1.5%	6.3%	11.2%	12.9%
Free cash flow margin	10.7%	13.4%	18.8%	15.1%	15.7%	15.8%	13.2%	16.7%	19.7%	19.6%
Return on capital	15.5%	20.4%	24.2%	28.1%	35.4%	18.0%	4.4%	18.5%	30.5%	39.2%
Return on equity	13.5%	18.5%	26.0%	32.4%	37.1%	19.0%	4.2%	21.6%	37.0%	40.5%
Return on assets	3.3%	4.4%	6.1%	7.8%	9.6%	5.0%	1.0%	4.8%	8.7%	9.9%
Net debt to EBITDA	−0.4x	0.1x	0.7x	0.4x	0.0x	0.8x	2.2x	0.9x	0.5x	−0.2x

US$ billions unless stated. Where a later 10-K restated a year, the latest filed figure is shown. Download all figures (CSV, US$ millions)

Source: Progressive's Form 10-K filings, from SEC EDGAR. For information only, not investment advice. The Filing Desk is not affiliated with Progressive.