Assured Guaranty

AGO · NYSE · Financials · Financials, fiscal 2016 to 2025

AGO · Last close · November 6, 2026

$73.45

Assured Guaranty's revenue rose 27.3% to $1.1 billion in fiscal 2025. Its net margin was 45.3%, up from 43.1% a year earlier. It paid out $568 million in dividends and buybacks. The diluted share count fell 10.3%.

ASSURED GUARANTY LTD. Latest fiscal year ended December 31, 2025 10-K filed February 27, 2026 · 0001273813-26-000011 Updated November 6, 2026

Revenue

$1.1B

27.3%

Net margin

45.3%

2.2 pts

Net income

$503M

33.8%

Free cash flow

—

Return on capital

10.2%

2.0 pts

Market cap

$3.3B

Nov 6 close

P/E

10.4x

On $7.07 EPS, 4 qtrs

Net margin is net income as a share of revenue. Free cash flow is cash from operations minus capital spending. Return on capital is after-tax operating income as a share of the money invested in the business: debt plus equity, minus cash. Market cap is the last closing share price times the latest diluted share count, so it is approximate. P/E is the last close divided by diluted earnings per share over the last four quarters, or the latest fiscal year where the quarters aren't available; there is none when the company made a loss.

Charts show fiscal years, from the 10-K filings.

What Assured Guaranty does

Assured Guaranty is a holding company based in Bermuda. Through its subsidiaries it sells credit protection, mainly financial guaranty insurance, to the U.S. and non-U.S. public finance (including infrastructure) and structured finance markets. If the issuer of an insured bond or loan misses a scheduled payment, Assured Guaranty must pay the shortfall of that payment to the holder.

It markets this insurance directly to issuers and underwriters of public finance and structured finance securities and to investors. Most guaranteed obligations are issued in the U.S. and the United Kingdom, with others in Western Europe, Australia and other places. It also writes specialty insurance and reinsurance on deals that look like its structured finance exposures. It earns money from premiums and from investing its assets.

It also takes part in asset management through its ownership interest in Sound Point Capital Management and related affiliates. In January 2026 it bought Warwick Company (UK) Limited, the owner of Assured Life Reinsurance, a Bermuda life reinsurance company.

Its biggest risks, as it describes them

Large single or correlated insured exposures could cause big losses.
Losses on insured obligations could far exceed what it expects, or recoveries fall short.
Public finance issuers it insures may face big budget deficits.
Narrow credit spreads could lower demand for its financial guaranty insurance.
Credit losses and changes in interest rates could hurt its investments.

From Assured Guaranty's annual report on Form 10-K, filed February 27, 2026, in our words; the 10-K has the full description and every risk factor. Updated with each new annual report.

Income statement

Revenue and net income

US$ billions, fiscal years; net losses in red. Revenue on the left axis, net income on the right; zero is the same line on both.

Revenue (left axis)Net income (right axis)

Gross profit, R&D and operating income

US$ billions, fiscal years. Gross profit is revenue minus the cost of what was sold; research and development is one of the costs paid from it; what remains after all operating costs is operating income. Losses in red.

Gross profitResearch and developmentOperating income

Margins

Percent of revenue

GrossOperatingNetFree cash flow

From fiscal 2016 to 2025, earnings per share grew 5.1% a year and net income fell 6.0% a year, as buybacks cut the share count by 64%.

Diluted earnings per share

US$ per share, fiscal years, restated for any stock splits; loss years in red.

Returns on capital

Return on capital and on equity

Percent. Return on capital is after-tax operating income over the money invested in the business (debt plus equity, minus cash); return on equity is net income over shareholders' equity. Both use the average of opening and closing balances.

Return on capitalReturn on equity

Balance sheet

Cash and debt

US$ billions, at each fiscal year end. Debt includes finance leases.

Cash and short-term investmentsDebt

Assets, liabilities and equity

US$ billions, at each fiscal year end. Assets equal liabilities plus equity; negative equity in red.

Total assetsTotal liabilitiesShareholders' equity

Debt and liquidity ratios

Times. Debt to equity, current assets over current liabilities, and net debt over EBITDA (a full year's).

Debt to equityCurrent ratioNet debt to EBITDA

Five years at a glance

Fiscal year end	FY21	FY22	FY23	FY24	FY25
Cash and short-term investments	1,567	1,017	1,947	1,349	1,322
Debt incl. finance leases	1,673	1,675	1,694	1,699	1,704
Net debt (negative means net cash)	106	658	−253	350	382
Net debt to EBITDA	—	—	—	—	—
Debt to equity	0.3x	0.3x	0.3x	0.3x	0.3x
Interest coverage	6.5x	2.8x	8.4x	6.5x	8.8x
Current ratio	—	—	—	—	—
Quick ratio	—	—	—	—	—

US$ millions unless stated, at each fiscal year end. Net debt to EBITDA is debt minus cash, divided by operating income before depreciation and amortization: roughly how many years of those earnings the net debt equals. Debt to equity is debt as a multiple of shareholders' equity. Interest coverage is operating income divided by interest expense. The current ratio is current assets over current liabilities; the quick ratio leaves out inventory.

Cash flow

Free cash flow is cash from operations minus capital expenditure. The SEC's structured data for Assured Guaranty's filings doesn't give both for any year, so free cash flow is left out.

Stock-based compensation and buybacks

US$ billions, fiscal years. Shares paid to employees (stock-based compensation, a cost that uses no cash) against cash spent buying shares back. Buybacks that only match it leave the share count roughly where it was.

Stock-based compensationShare buybacks

Dividends and buybacks

US$ billions, cash paid in each fiscal year

DividendsShare buybacks

Diluted share count

Weighted-average diluted shares, millions

Projections

Project Assured Guaranty's revenue, net income and earnings per share five years ahead in a bull, a base and a bear case with your own figures, and see the share prices your P/E estimates give them, or value it with a discounted cash flow model. Every projected figure is yours: it is not a forecast of ours.

Open Assured Guaranty's projections

Insider trades

Over the 12 months between November 7, 2025 and November 6, 2026, no insider bought Assured Guaranty shares on the open market, and 4 insiders sold $18.1 million.

Buys and sells by month

US$ millions, open-market purchases (up) and sales (down) by officers, directors and 10% owners in each month.

BoughtSold

Date	Insider	Trade	Shares	Price	Value	Filing
May 29, 2026	Lorin RadtkeDirector	Sold	1,047	$74.32	$77,813	Form 4
May 11, 2026	Robert BailensonChief Operating Officer	Sold	50,000	$78.62	$3.9 million	Form 4
Mar 30, 2026	Francisco L BorgesDirector	Sold	123,750	$80.22	$9.9 million	Form 4
Mar 23, 2026	Dominic FredericoPresident/CEO/Deputy Chairman, Director	Sold	29,998	$81.41	$2.4 million	Form 4
Mar 20, 2026	Dominic FredericoPresident/CEO/Deputy Chairman, Director	Sold	20,002	$81.06	$1.6 million	Form 4
Mar 4, 2026	Lorin RadtkeDirector	Sold	1,219	$87.14	$106,224	Form 4

Open-market purchases and sales by officers, directors and 10% owners, from their Form 4 filings with the SEC: one row per person, day and filing, at the day's average price. Grants, option exercises and shares withheld for tax aren't counted. Insiders buy and sell for many reasons, such as taxes, spreading their savings or a plan set up months earlier, so a trade on its own says little about where a company is heading. For information only, not investment advice. Insider trades at all companies

Indicators

Four widely used measures, worked out from the company's filings. The cutoffs are the ones their authors or users go by, not a verdict of ours.

Indicator	FY23	FY24	FY25
Piotroski F-score	—	—	—
Rule of 40	—	—	—
Altman Z''	—	—	—
Accruals ratio	1.9%	2.7%	2.0%

Piotroski F-score: how many of nine simple tests of profitability, funding and efficiency the company passed in the year (Piotroski, 2000); 8 or 9 is strong, 0 to 2 weak. Rule of 40: revenue growth plus free cash flow margin; software investors treat 40% or more as the bar. Altman Z'': working capital, retained earnings, operating income and equity weighed against assets and liabilities (Altman, 1995); Altman puts above 2.6 in the safe zone and below 1.1 in the distress zone. Accruals ratio: net income minus cash from operations, over average total assets; lower means profit is backed by cash.

The nine F-score tests

Test	FY23	FY24	FY25
Net income is positive	Pass	Pass	Pass
Cash from operations is positive	Pass	Pass	Pass
Return on assets rose	Pass	Fail	Pass
Cash from operations exceeds net income	Fail	Fail	Fail
Debt fell relative to assets	Fail	Fail	Fail
Current ratio rose	—	—	—
Share count didn't rise	Pass	Pass	Pass
Gross margin rose	—	—	—
Revenue rose relative to assets	Pass	Fail	Pass
F-score	—	—	—

Companies that report no gross profit are scored on the other eight.

Compare

Put Assured Guaranty side by side with any other company we cover: revenue, growth, margins, cash flow and returns, with ten years of charts.

Similar companies

Company	Year	Revenue growth	Operating margin	Free cash flow margin	Return on capital	Net debt to EBITDA	F-score	Compare
Assured Guaranty	FY25	27.3%	—	—	10.2%	—	—
Radian Group	FY25	−0.8%	—	9.7%	—	—	—	Compare
Safety Insurance Group	FY25	12.8%	—	15.2%	—	—	—	Compare
HCI Group	FY25	20.1%	—	48.9%	—	−2.6x	—	Compare
United Fire Group	FY25	10.6%	—	—	—	—	—	Compare

Each company's latest fiscal year. Fiscal years end in different months, so the periods don't line up exactly. Free cash flow margin is free cash flow as a share of revenue. Net debt to EBITDA is explained under the balance sheet, and the F-score under Indicators.

10 years of figures

Fiscal year	FY16	FY17	FY18	FY19	FY20	FY21	FY22	FY23	FY24	FY25
Income statement
Revenue	1,677	1,739	1,001	963	1,115	848	723	1,373	872	1,110
Revenue growth	−24.0%	3.7%	−42.4%	−3.8%	15.8%	−23.9%	−14.7%	89.9%	−36.5%	27.3%
Gross profit	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Research and development	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Operating income	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Net income	881	730	521	402	362	389	124	739	376	503
Diluted EPS (US$)	6.56	5.96	4.68	4.00	4.19	5.23	1.92	12.30	6.87	10.26
Diluted shares (millions)	134	122	111	100	86	74	64	60	54	49
Cash flow
Cash from operations	−132	433	462	−509	−853	−1,937	−2,479	461	47	259
Capital expenditure	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Free cash flow	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Dividends paid	69	70	71	74	69	66	64	67	68	68
Share buybacks	306	501	500	500	446	496	500	199	502	500
Acquisitions	435	95	0	145	0	0	0	0	0	0
Stock-based compensation	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Balance sheet at fiscal year end
Cash and short-term investments	717	771	833	1,451	1,149	1,567	1,017	1,947	1,349	1,322
Debt incl. finance leases	1,306	1,292	1,233	1,237	1,225	1,673	1,675	1,694	1,699	1,704
Total assets	14,151	14,433	13,603	14,326	15,334	18,208	16,843	12,539	11,901	12,176
Total liabilities	7,647	7,594	7,048	7,674	8,629	11,708	11,551	6,774	6,348	6,387
Shareholders' equity	6,504	6,839	6,555	6,639	6,643	6,292	5,064	5,713	5,495	5,663
Margins and ratios
Gross margin	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Operating margin	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Net margin	52.5%	42.0%	52.0%	41.7%	32.5%	45.9%	17.1%	53.8%	43.1%	45.3%
Free cash flow margin	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Rule of 40 (growth + FCF margin)	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Return on capital	13.9%	11.1%	8.5%	7.1%	6.7%	7.4%	3.4%	13.2%	8.1%	10.2%
Return on equity	14.0%	10.9%	7.8%	6.1%	5.5%	6.0%	2.2%	13.7%	6.7%	9.0%
Return on assets	6.1%	5.1%	3.7%	2.9%	2.4%	2.3%	0.7%	5.0%	3.1%	4.2%
Net debt to EBITDA	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

US$ millions unless stated. Where a later 10-K restated a year, the latest filed figure is shown. Download all figures (CSV, US$ millions)

Source: Assured Guaranty's Form 10-K filings, from SEC EDGAR. For information only, not investment advice. The Filing Desk is not affiliated with Assured Guaranty.