Casey's
Casey's revenue rose 10.2% to $17.6 billion in fiscal 2026. Its net margin was 4.1%, up from 3.4% a year earlier. Free cash flow was $722 million, up 23.4%. It paid out $284 million in dividends and buybacks, 39% of free cash flow. The diluted share count fell 0.2%.
Net margin is net income as a share of revenue. Free cash flow is cash from operations minus capital spending. Return on capital is after-tax operating income as a share of the money invested in the business: debt plus equity, minus cash. Market cap is the last closing share price times the latest diluted share count, so it is approximate. P/E is the last close divided by diluted earnings per share over the last four quarters, or the latest fiscal year where the quarters aren't available; there is none when the company made a loss.
What Casey's does
Casey's runs convenience stores that sell gasoline, prepared food, drinks, groceries and other items. At the end of April 2026 it operated 2,944 stores in 19 states, about half of them in Iowa, Missouri and Illinois. Approximately 71% of its stores were opened in towns with fewer than 20,000 people, where national convenience chains are often absent. Almost all stores have a full kitchen that makes pizza, sandwiches, donuts and other hot food, and nearly all sell fuel.
It earns most of its revenue from retail fuel and from the products sold inside its stores. Over the last three fiscal years, prepared food, drinks, groceries and general merchandise brought in about 36% of total revenue but about 63% of revenue less cost of goods sold, so the inside sales matter more to profit than their share of revenue suggests. A small wholesale fuel business supplies dealer sites and made up approximately 3% of fiscal 2026 revenue.
Casey's runs three distribution centers that supply most stores and also delivers most of its own fuel. It had about 23,490 full-time and 26,358 part-time employees, and over 10 million members in its Rewards program. It competes with local grocery and convenience stores, dollar stores, restaurants and other fuel sellers.
Its biggest risks, as it describes them
- The volatility of wholesale fuel costs, and falling fuel demand from efficiency gains and changing consumer habits.
- Rising food ingredient costs, since prepared food is a key part of its profit.
- Disruption to its distribution network or distribution centers that supply its stores.
- Government action and tax increases that cut tobacco and nicotine sales.
- Hazards in storing and moving fuel, which could cause disruptions and large losses or liabilities.
Charts show fiscal years, from the 10-K filings.
Revenue and margins
Net income and earnings per share
From fiscal 2017 to 2026, earnings per share grew 17.5% a year and net income 16.7% a year, as buybacks cut the share count by 6%.
Returns on capital
Cash flow
Payouts and share count
Valuation
Two ways to value Casey's yourself, both starting from its filings: a discounted cash flow model and the price-to-earnings method.
What Casey's says to expect
- Fiscal 2027: sales, margin, expenses and EBITDA
The Company expects inside same-store sales to increase 2% to 5% with an inside margin above 42%. The Company expects same-store fuel gallons sold to be negative 1% to positive 1%. Total operating expenses are expected to increase approximately 5% to 7%.
- Fiscal 2027: EBITDA growth
The Company expects EBITDA to increase 8% to 10%, which would imply 35% on a two-year stack basis at the midpoint of the range.
- Fiscal 2027: store openings and capital spending
The Company expects to open at least 120 stores in fiscal 2027 through a mix of M&A and new store construction. Net interest expense is expected to be approximately $95 million. Depreciation and amortization is expected to be approximately $490 million and the purchase of property and equipment is expected to be approximately $800 million.
- Fiscal 2027: tax rate
The tax rate is expected to be approximately 24% to 26% for the year.
Discounted cash flow (DCF)
A discounted cash flow (DCF) model values a business as the cash it may generate in future, discounted back to today. The starting figures come from Casey's 10-K (or, for net cash and shares, its latest 10-Q) and the assumptions are yours: start from one of three example scenarios, then change any figure to see what it implies for a share, and how that compares with the last share price.
Value per share on three example scenarios, from Casey's fiscal 2026 free cash flow of $722M, net cash of −$1.9B at April 30, 2026 and 37 million diluted shares, from its filings. The scenarios are fitted to Casey's: the base scenario's growth in years 1 to 5 is its revenue growth over the last 3 years, 5.2% a year; the cautious and optimistic ones are lower and higher, and growth in years 6 to 10 is halfway to the long-run rate. The base scenario's discount rate is 7% for a stable business (Food Retail); the cautious and optimistic ones use a point more and a point less. Select one to load it into the calculator. These are the model's arithmetic on those assumptions, not a forecast or a price target.
- Last close, October 26, 2026
- $703.93
- Value on these assumptions, against the last close
- —
- Cash flows in years 1 to 10, valued today
- —
- Everything after year 10, valued today
- —
- Plus net cash
- —
- Share of value from after year 10
How the value changes with two assumptions
Price-to-earnings (P/E) method
Another common way to value a company is to multiply its earnings per share by a price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple: the number of years of today's earnings an investor pays for a share. A higher multiple usually means investors expect earnings to grow. Choose a multiple, for example from similar companies, to see the value it gives.
Value per share on three example scenarios, from Casey's earnings per share of $20.76 (over the last four quarters). Each grows earnings for a year at the cash flow scenarios' rates and applies a multiple to next year's earnings: 33.3×, the middle of Casey's own P/E today, its peers' median and its sector's median (its peers' median) for the base scenario, 20% less and more for the cautious and optimistic ones. The price is brought back a year at 8%, 7% and 6%. Select one to load it into the calculator. These are the model's arithmetic on those assumptions, not a forecast or a price target.
- Last close, October 26, 2026
- $703.93
- Value at this multiple, against the last close
- —
- Casey's P/E at the last close
- 33.9×
| Company | Last close | Earnings per share | P/E today |
|---|---|---|---|
| United Natural FoodsUNFI | $48.25 | $1.34 | 36.0× |
| Casey'sCASY | $703.93 | $20.76 | 33.9× |
| MaplebearCART | $60.88 | $1.83 | 33.3× |
| Sprouts Farmers MarketSFM | $65.91 | $5.23 | 12.6× |
Balance sheet
| Fiscal year end | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash and short-term investments | 159 | 379 | 206 | 327 | 523 |
| Debt incl. finance leases | 1,690 | 1,675 | 1,637 | 2,514 | 2,436 |
| Net debt (negative means net cash) | 1,531 | 1,296 | 1,431 | 2,188 | 1,913 |
| Net debt to EBITDA | 1.9x | 1.4x | 1.4x | 1.8x | 1.3x |
| Debt to equity | 0.8x | 0.6x | 0.5x | 0.7x | 0.6x |
| Interest coverage | 8.7x | 12.3x | 13.3x | 9.5x | 10.7x |
| Current ratio | 0.8x | 1.0x | 0.9x | 0.9x | 1.0x |
| Quick ratio | 0.4x | 0.6x | 0.4x | 0.5x | 0.6x |
Insider trades
Over the 12 months between October 27, 2025 and October 26, 2026, 2 insiders bought $565,402 of Casey's shares on the open market, and 6 insiders sold $29.2 million.
| Date | Insider | Trade | Shares | Price | Value | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 9, 2026 | Williams Ena KoschelChief Operating Officer | Sold | 2,800 | $833.69 | $2.3 million | Form 4 |
| Jul 8, 2026 | Stephen P Bramlage JRChief Financial Officer | Sold | 5,700 | $838.16 | $4.8 million | Form 4 |
| Jul 8, 2026 | Allison M. WingDirector | Sold | 530 | $837.58 | $443,917 | Form 4 |
| Jul 7, 2026 | Darren M RebelezPresident and CEO, Director | Sold | 19,000 | $801.46 | $15.2 million | Form 4 |
| Jul 1, 2026 | Williams Ena KoschelChief Operating Officer | Sold | 3,000 | $785.20 | $2.4 million | Form 4 |
| Jun 30, 2026 | Chad Michael FrazellChief HR Officer | Sold | 3,013 | $787.49 | $2.4 million | Form 4 |
| Jun 29, 2026 | Katrina S LindseyChief Legal Officer | Sold | 2,000 | $800.00 | $1.6 million | Form 4 |
| Jun 26, 2026 | Mike SpanosDirector | Bought | 256 | $778.81 | $199,375 | Form 4 |
| Mar 13, 2026 | Mike SpanosDirector | Bought | 300 | $665.43 | $199,629 | Form 4 |
| Mar 11, 2026 | Katrina S LindseyChief Legal Officer | Sold | 200 | $683.04 | $136,608 | Form 4 |
| Jan 5, 2026 | Moats Maria CastanonDirector | Bought | 300 | $554.66 | $166,398 | Form 4 |
Piotroski F-score
The F-score counts how many of nine simple tests of profitability, funding and efficiency a company passed in a year (Piotroski, 2000). The more tests passed, the stronger the year: 8 or 9 is strong, 0 to 2 weak. Companies that report no gross profit are scored on the other eight.
| Test | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net income is positive | Pass | Pass | Pass |
| Cash from operations is positive | Pass | Pass | Pass |
| Return on assets rose | Pass | Pass | Pass |
| Cash from operations exceeds net income | Pass | Pass | Pass |
| Debt fell relative to assets | Pass | Fail | Pass |
| Current ratio rose | Fail | Pass | Pass |
| Share count didn't rise | Pass | Pass | Pass |
| Gross margin rose | — | — | — |
| Revenue rose relative to assets | Fail | Pass | Fail |
| F-score | 6 of 8 | 7 of 8 | 7 of 8 |
| Accruals ratio | −6.4% | −7.5% | −7.7% |
Compare
Put Casey's side by side with any other company we cover: revenue, growth, margins, cash flow and returns, with ten years of charts.
Similar companies
| Company | Year | Revenue growth | Operating margin | Free cash flow margin | Return on capital | Net debt to EBITDA | F-score | Compare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casey's | FY26 | 10.2% | — | 4.1% | 13.6% | 1.3x | 7 | |
| United Natural Foods | FY26 | −2.0% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 5.3% | 3.0x | 6 | Compare |
| Sprouts Farmers Market | FY25 | 14.1% | 7.8% | 5.3% | 46.9% | −0.3x | 7 | Compare |
| Grocery Outlet | FY25 | 7.3% | −4.7% | 0.5% | −11.6% | — | 5 | Compare |
| Maplebear | FY25 | 10.8% | 13.3% | 24.3% | 22.5% | −1.2x | 6 | Compare |
10 years of figures
| Fiscal year | FY17 | FY18 | FY19 | FY20 | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||||||
| Revenue | 7,507 | 8,391 | 9,353 | 9,175 | 8,707 | 12,953 | 15,094 | 14,863 | 15,941 | 17,561 |
| Revenue growth | 5.4% | 11.8% | 11.5% | −1.9% | −5.1% | 48.8% | 16.5% | −1.5% | 7.2% | 10.2% |
| Gross profit | 1,681 | 1,769 | 1,955 | 2,145 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Research and development | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Operating income | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net income | 178 | 318 | 204 | 264 | 313 | 340 | 447 | 502 | 546 | 714 |
| Diluted EPS (US$) | 4.48 | 8.34 | 5.51 | 7.10 | 8.38 | 9.10 | 11.91 | 13.43 | 14.64 | 19.16 |
| Diluted shares (millions) | 40 | 38 | 37 | 37 | 37 | 37 | 38 | 37 | 37 | 37 |
| Cash flow | ||||||||||
| Cash from operations | 459 | 420 | 531 | 504 | 804 | 789 | 882 | 893 | 1,091 | 1,378 |
| Capital expenditure | 433 | 577 | 395 | 439 | 441 | 326 | 477 | 522 | 506 | 656 |
| Free cash flow | 26 | −158 | 136 | 65 | 363 | 462 | 405 | 371 | 585 | 722 |
| Dividends paid | 37 | 39 | 41 | 46 | 48 | 51 | 56 | 63 | 72 | 83 |
| Share buybacks | 48 | 215 | 38 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 105 | 1 | 200 |
| Acquisitions | 26 | 37 | 68 | 33 | 9 | 902 | 86 | 330 | 1,239 | 142 |
| Stock-based compensation | 11 | 19 | 16 | 18 | 32 | 38 | 47 | 41 | 48 | 63 |
| Balance sheet at fiscal year end | ||||||||||
| Cash and short-term investments | 77 | 54 | 63 | 78 | 336 | 159 | 379 | 206 | 327 | 523 |
| Debt incl. finance leases | 923 | 1,307 | 1,300 | 1,286 | 1,364 | 1,690 | 1,675 | 1,637 | 2,514 | 2,436 |
| Total assets | 3,020 | 3,470 | 3,731 | 3,944 | 4,460 | 5,506 | 5,943 | 6,347 | 8,208 | 8,936 |
| Total liabilities | 1,830 | 2,199 | 2,323 | 2,301 | 2,528 | 3,265 | 3,283 | 3,332 | 4,699 | 4,984 |
| Shareholders' equity | 1,191 | 1,271 | 1,409 | 1,643 | 1,933 | 2,241 | 2,661 | 3,015 | 3,509 | 3,952 |
| Margins and ratios | ||||||||||
| Gross margin | 22.4% | 21.1% | 20.9% | 23.4% | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Operating margin | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net margin | 2.4% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.1% |
| Free cash flow margin | 0.3% | −1.9% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 4.1% |
| Return on capital | 10.6% | 11.6% | 9.6% | 11.1% | 12.0% | 11.4% | 12.6% | 12.9% | 12.1% | 13.6% |
| Return on equity | 15.6% | 25.8% | 15.2% | 17.3% | 17.5% | 16.3% | 18.2% | 17.7% | 16.8% | 19.1% |
| Return on assets | 6.2% | 9.8% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 8.3% |
| Net debt to EBITDA | 1.7x | 2.6x | 2.2x | 1.9x | 1.4x | 1.9x | 1.4x | 1.4x | 1.8x | 1.3x |