Grocery Outlet

GO · Nasdaq · Consumer Staples · Financials, fiscal 2017 to 2025

GO · Last close · October 26, 2026

$13.06

Grocery Outlet's revenue rose 7.3% to $4.7 billion in fiscal 2025. Its operating margin was −4.7%, down from 1.8% a year earlier. Free cash flow was $24 million. The diluted share count fell 1.6%.

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. Latest fiscal year ended January 3, 2026 10-K filed March 4, 2026 · 0001771515-26-000015 Updated October 11, 2026

Revenue

$4.7B

7.3%

Operating margin

−4.7%

6.5 pts

Net income

−$225M

$40M a year earlier

Free cash flow

$24M

Return on capital

−11.6%

15.2 pts

Market cap

$1.3B

Oct 26 close

P/E

—

Loss: no P/E

Operating margin is operating income as a share of revenue. Free cash flow is cash from operations minus capital spending. Return on capital is after-tax operating income as a share of the money invested in the business: debt plus equity, minus cash. Market cap is the last closing share price times the latest diluted share count, so it is approximate. P/E is the last close divided by diluted earnings per share over the last four quarters, or the latest fiscal year where the quarters aren't available; there is none when the company made a loss.

About these figures. Grocery Outlet's fiscal 2025 operating loss made its EBITDA negative, so net debt to EBITDA is blank for that year.

What Grocery Outlet does

Grocery Outlet is a discount grocery chain. It sells name-brand packaged goods and fresh products, mostly through stores run by independent operators. As of January 3, 2026, it had 570 stores in 16 states, from California and Washington to Pennsylvania, Georgia and Virginia. Its headquarters is in Emeryville, California.

The company buys opportunistically, meaning a central buying team takes surplus or excess products from suppliers when they are offered. It says its prices are generally 40% to 70% below those of conventional retailers. The assortment changes often, and it also carries everyday staples and has recently added its own private label products.

The independent operators are separate businesses that put up capital to start their store, run ordering, merchandising, local marketing and hiring, and share store profits with Grocery Outlet. Grocery Outlet plans to run some newly opened stores itself in fiscal 2026. It is carrying out a restructuring plan and an optimization plan.

Its biggest risks, as it describes them

Depending on suppliers to keep offering surplus products at attractive prices.
Not matching consumer demand with the right mix of opportunistic goods.
Disruption in its distribution network or at a third-party system vendor.
Newly opened stores that may not reach expected sales, and a revised growth plan.
Trouble attracting and keeping independent operators and other employees.

From Grocery Outlet's annual report on Form 10-K, filed March 4, 2026, in our words; the 10-K has the full description and every risk factor. Updated with each new 10-K.

Charts show fiscal years, from the 10-K filings.

Revenue and margins

Revenue

US$ billions, fiscal years

Margins

Percent of revenue

GrossOperatingNetFree cash flow

Net income and earnings per share

From fiscal 2017 to 2024, earnings per share grew 4.2% a year and net income 9.7% a year, as new shares raised the share count by 46% and diluted each share's earnings. Grocery Outlet then lost money in fiscal 2025.

Net income

US$ billions, fiscal years; loss years in red.

Diluted earnings per share

US$ per share, fiscal years, restated for any stock splits; loss years in red.

Returns on capital

Return on capital and on equity

Percent. Return on capital is after-tax operating income over the money invested in the business (debt plus equity, minus cash); return on equity is net income over shareholders' equity. Both use the average of opening and closing balances.

Return on capitalReturn on equity

Cash flow

Free cash flow

US$ billions. Cash from operations minus capital expenditure; negative years in red.

Payouts and share count

Dividends and buybacks

US$ billions, cash paid in each fiscal year

DividendsShare buybacks

Diluted share count

Weighted-average diluted shares, millions

Valuation

Two ways to value Grocery Outlet yourself, both starting from its filings: a discounted cash flow model and the price-to-earnings method.

Discounted cash flow (DCF)

A discounted cash flow (DCF) model values a business as the cash it may generate in future, discounted back to today. The starting figures come from Grocery Outlet's 10-K (or, for net cash and shares, its latest 10-Q) and the assumptions are yours: start from one of three example scenarios, then change any figure to see what it implies for a share, and how that compares with the last share price.

Value per share on three example scenarios, from Grocery Outlet's cash from operations minus depreciation in fiscal 2025 (free cash flow before spending to grow: capital spending was 1.5 times depreciation, which holds its free cash flow down) of $93M, net cash of −$426M at January 3, 2026 and 98 million diluted shares, from its filings. The scenarios are fitted to Grocery Outlet: the base scenario's growth in years 1 to 5 is its revenue growth over the last 3 years, 9.4% a year; the cautious and optimistic ones are lower and higher, and growth in years 6 to 10 is halfway to the long-run rate. The base scenario's discount rate is 9%: 7% for a stable business (Food Retail), plus 1 point as a smaller company, worth $1.3B, plus 1 point for unsteady results (a loss in fiscal 2025); the cautious and optimistic ones use a point more and a point less. Select one to load it into the calculator. These are the model's arithmetic on those assumptions, not a forecast or a price target.

From the filings

Starting free cash flow, US$ millions

Cash from operations minus depreciation in fiscal 2025: a rough guide to cash flow before spending to grow, for a company building heavily.

Net cash, US$ millions

Cash and short-term investments minus debt and finance leases at January 3, 2026. Negative means net debt.

Diluted shares, millions

Weighted-average diluted shares in fiscal 2025.

Your assumptions

Start from

Fitted to Grocery Outlet's own revenue growth, as above. Cautious: growth of 4.5% then 3% a year, 2% after year 10, a 10% discount rate. Base: growth of 9.5% then 6% a year, 2.5% after year 10, a 9% discount rate. Optimistic: growth of 14% then 8.5% a year, 3% after year 10, a 8% discount rate.

Free cash flow growth, years 1 to 5 (% a year)

Free cash flow growth, years 6 to 10 (% a year)

Growth after year 10 (% a year)Long-run growth forever after year 10. Usually close to inflation, and always below the discount rate.

Discount rate (% a year)The yearly return an investor wants for the risk. A higher rate gives a lower value.

Value per share on these assumptions

—

Last close, October 26, 2026: $13.06
Value on these assumptions, against the last close: —

Cash flows in years 1 to 10, valued today: —
Everything after year 10, valued today: —
Plus net cash: —
Share of value from after year 10: —

Projected free cash flow

US$ billions. Each column is one year's projected free cash flow, split into what it is worth today and the part removed by discounting.

Value todayRemoved by discounting

How the value changes with two assumptions

Value per share in US$, with the growth rates above. The highlighted cell matches the current assumptions.

How the model works. Free cash flow grows at the first rate for five years and the second rate for five more, and each year is discounted at the discount rate. Everything after year 10 is valued as year-10 cash flow × (1 + growth after year 10) ÷ (discount rate − growth after year 10), discounted back ten years. Net cash is added and the total is divided by diluted shares. The result depends entirely on the assumptions. It is not a forecast, a price target or a recommendation. The last close is the consolidated US closing price, from Databento.

Price-to-earnings (P/E) method

Another common way to value a company is to multiply its earnings per share by a price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple: the number of years of today's earnings an investor pays for a share. A higher multiple usually means investors expect earnings to grow. Choose a multiple, for example from similar companies, to see the value it gives.

The P/E method needs positive earnings, and Grocery Outlet's latest diluted earnings per share were negative or zero.

Balance sheet

Fiscal year end	FY21	FY22	FY23	FY24	FY25
Cash and short-term investments	140	103	115	63	70
Debt incl. finance leases	467	385	299	482	496
Net debt (negative means net cash)	327	283	184	419	426
Net debt to EBITDA	2.1x	1.6x	0.9x	2.2x	—
Debt to equity	0.5x	0.3x	0.2x	0.4x	0.5x
Interest coverage	6.1x	5.0x	5.5x	3.0x	−6.8x
Current ratio	1.9x	1.7x	1.4x	1.4x	1.4x
Quick ratio	0.7x	0.5x	0.4x	0.3x	0.3x

US$ millions unless stated, at each fiscal year end. Net debt to EBITDA is debt minus cash, divided by operating income before depreciation and amortization: roughly how many years of those earnings the net debt equals. Debt to equity is debt as a multiple of shareholders' equity. Interest coverage is operating income divided by interest expense. The current ratio is current assets over current liabilities; the quick ratio leaves out inventory.

Insider trades

Over the 12 months between October 27, 2025 and October 26, 2026, 7 insiders bought $8.3 million of Grocery Outlet shares on the open market, and 6 insiders sold $923,210, $23,226 of it under trading plans set up in advance.

Date	Insider	Trade	Shares	Price	Value	Filing
Aug 27, 2026	Carey F. JarosDirector	Bought	15,000	$11.70	$175,500	Form 4
Aug 21, 2026	Frank Michael KerrSee Remarks	Sold	1,432	$11.30	$16,182	Form 4
Aug 20, 2026	Paul Blaine MillerSee Remarks	Bought	8,000	$10.90	$87,200	Form 4
Jun 25, 2026	Paul Blaine MillerSee Remarks	Bought	5,000	$9.50	$47,500	Form 4
Jun 18, 2026	Paul Blaine MillerSee Remarks	Bought	10,000	$9.37	$93,700	Form 4
Apr 1, 2026	Andrea Renee BortnerSee Remarks	Sold plan	1,851	$7.00	$12,957	Form 4
Mar 27, 2026	Erik D. RagatzDirector	Bought	125,000	$7.06	$882,500	Form 4
Mar 24, 2026	Jason J. N. PotterPresident and CEO, Director	Bought	2,556	$6.68	$17,074	Form 4
Mar 23, 2026	Jason J. N. PotterPresident and CEO, Director	Bought	110,252	$6.35	$700,100	Form 4
Mar 19, 2026	Jason J. N. PotterPresident and CEO, Director	Bought	286,097	$5.90	$1.7 million	Form 4
Mar 19, 2026	Erik D. RagatzDirector	Bought	50,000	$5.75	$287,500	Form 4
Mar 18, 2026	Erik D. RagatzDirector	Bought	33,997	$5.85	$198,882	Form 4

The latest 12 of 29 trades. Open-market purchases and sales by officers, directors and 10% owners, from their Form 4 filings with the SEC: one row per person, day and filing, at the day's average price. Grants, option exercises and shares withheld for tax aren't counted. Insiders buy and sell for many reasons, such as taxes, spreading their savings or a plan set up months earlier, so a trade on its own says little about where a company is heading. For information only, not investment advice. Insider trades at all companies

Piotroski F-score

The F-score counts how many of nine simple tests of profitability, funding and efficiency a company passed in a year (Piotroski, 2000). The more tests passed, the stronger the year: 8 or 9 is strong, 0 to 2 weak. Companies that report no gross profit are scored on the other eight.

Test	FY23	FY24	FY25
Net income is positive	Pass	Pass	Fail
Cash from operations is positive	Pass	Pass	Pass
Return on assets rose	Pass	Fail	Fail
Cash from operations exceeds net income	Pass	Pass	Pass
Debt fell relative to assets	Pass	Fail	Fail
Current ratio rose	Fail	Pass	Fail
Share count didn't rise	Fail	Pass	Pass
Gross margin rose	Pass	Fail	Pass
Revenue rose relative to assets	Pass	Pass	Pass
F-score	7 of 9	6 of 9	5 of 9
Accruals ratio	−7.8%	−2.4%	−14.3%

The accruals ratio is net income minus cash from operations, over average total assets.

Compare

Put Grocery Outlet side by side with any other company we cover: revenue, growth, margins, cash flow and returns, with ten years of charts.

Similar companies

Company	Year	Revenue growth	Operating margin	Free cash flow margin	Return on capital	Net debt to EBITDA	F-score	Compare
Grocery Outlet	FY25	7.3%	−4.7%	0.5%	−11.6%	—	5
Maplebear	FY25	10.8%	13.3%	24.3%	22.5%	−1.2x	6	Compare
Sprouts Farmers Market	FY25	14.1%	7.8%	5.3%	46.9%	−0.3x	7	Compare
Casey's	FY26	10.2%	—	4.1%	13.6%	1.3x	7	Compare
United Natural Foods	FY26	−2.0%	0.7%	1.0%	5.3%	3.0x	6	Compare

Each company's latest fiscal year. Fiscal years end in different months, so the periods don't line up exactly. Free cash flow margin is free cash flow as a share of revenue. Net debt to EBITDA is explained under the balance sheet, and the F-score above.

9 years of figures

Fiscal year	FY17	FY18	FY19	FY20	FY21	FY22	FY23	FY24	FY25
Income statement
Revenue	2,076	2,288	2,560	3,135	3,080	3,578	3,970	4,372	4,689
Revenue growth	—	10.2%	11.9%	22.5%	−1.8%	16.2%	10.9%	10.1%	7.3%
Gross profit	632	695	787	973	949	1,092	1,242	1,322	1,419
Research and development	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Operating income	77	82	68	107	89	95	126	78	−222
Net income	21	16	15	107	62	65	79	40	−225
Diluted EPS (US$)	0.30	0.23	0.19	1.08	0.63	0.65	0.79	0.40	−2.30
Diluted shares (millions)	68	68	82	98	99	100	101	100	98
Cash flow
Cash from operations	85	106	133	181	166	186	303	112	222
Capital expenditure	71	65	97	125	123	130	169	187	198
Free cash flow	14	41	36	56	42	55	134	−75	24
Dividends paid	1	154	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
Share buybacks	0	0	0	0	0	4	6	81	0
Acquisitions	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	60	0
Stock-based compensation	2	10	31	38	18	33	31	10	10
Balance sheet at fiscal year end
Cash and short-term investments	6	21	28	105	140	103	115	63	70
Debt incl. finance leases	—	857	466	466	467	385	299	482	496
Total assets	—	1,377	2,186	2,486	2,670	2,772	2,970	3,174	3,091
Total liabilities	—	1,077	1,440	1,563	1,660	1,662	1,750	1,976	2,107
Shareholders' equity	427	300	745	922	1,009	1,110	1,219	1,197	984
Margins and ratios
Gross margin	30.4%	30.4%	30.8%	31.1%	30.8%	30.5%	31.3%	30.2%	30.3%
Operating margin	3.7%	3.6%	2.7%	3.4%	2.9%	2.6%	3.2%	1.8%	−4.7%
Net margin	1.0%	0.7%	0.6%	3.4%	2.0%	1.8%	2.0%	0.9%	−4.8%
Free cash flow margin	0.7%	1.8%	1.4%	1.8%	1.4%	1.5%	3.4%	−1.7%	0.5%
Return on capital	—	—	5.4%	8.7%	5.5%	6.0%	6.9%	3.6%	−11.6%
Return on equity	—	—	3.0%	12.8%	6.5%	6.1%	6.8%	3.3%	−20.6%
Return on assets	—	—	0.9%	4.6%	2.4%	2.4%	2.8%	1.3%	−7.2%
Net debt to EBITDA	—	6.5x	3.8x	2.2x	2.1x	1.6x	0.9x	2.2x	—

US$ millions unless stated. Where a later 10-K restated a year, the latest filed figure is shown. Download all figures (CSV, US$ millions)

Source: Grocery Outlet's Form 10-K filings, from SEC EDGAR. For information only, not investment advice. The Filing Desk is not affiliated with Grocery Outlet.