National Vision

EYE · Nasdaq · Consumer Discretionary · Financials, fiscal 2016 to 2025

EYE · Last close · October 26, 2026

$17.80

National Vision's revenue rose 9.0% to $2.0 billion in fiscal 2025. Its operating margin was 3.0%, up from −0.6% a year earlier. Free cash flow was $73 million, up 92.6%. It paid out $3 million in dividends and buybacks, 4% of free cash flow. The diluted share count rose 2.5%.

National Vision Holdings, Inc. Latest fiscal year ended January 3, 2026 10-K filed March 4, 2026 · 0001628280-26-014379 Updated October 19, 2026

Revenue

$2.0B

9.0%

Operating margin

3.0%

3.5 pts

Net income

$30M

Free cash flow

$73M

92.6%

Return on capital

3.9%

4.6 pts

Market cap

$1.4B

Oct 26 close

P/E

29.2x

On $0.61 EPS, 4 qtrs

Operating margin is operating income as a share of revenue. Free cash flow is cash from operations minus capital spending. Return on capital is after-tax operating income as a share of the money invested in the business: debt plus equity, minus cash. Market cap is the last closing share price times the latest diluted share count, so it is approximate. P/E is the last close divided by diluted earnings per share over the last four quarters, or the latest fiscal year where the quarters aren't available; there is none when the company made a loss.

Charts show fiscal years, from the 10-K filings.

Revenue and margins

Revenue

US$ billions, fiscal years

Margins

Percent of revenue

GrossOperatingNetFree cash flow

Net income and earnings per share

From fiscal 2016 to 2025, earnings per share grew 5.4% a year and net income 9.3% a year, as new shares raised the share count by 41% and diluted each share's earnings.

Net income

US$ billions, fiscal years; loss years in red.

Diluted earnings per share

US$ per share, fiscal years, restated for any stock splits; loss years in red.

Returns on capital

Return on capital and on equity

Percent. Return on capital is after-tax operating income over the money invested in the business (debt plus equity, minus cash); return on equity is net income over shareholders' equity. Both use the average of opening and closing balances.

Return on capitalReturn on equity

Cash flow

Free cash flow

US$ billions. Cash from operations minus capital expenditure; negative years in red.

Payouts and share count

Dividends and buybacks

US$ billions, cash paid in each fiscal year

DividendsShare buybacks

Diluted share count

Weighted-average diluted shares, millions

Valuation

Two ways to value National Vision yourself, both starting from its filings: a discounted cash flow model and the price-to-earnings method.

Discounted cash flow (DCF)

A discounted cash flow (DCF) model values a business as the cash it may generate in future, discounted back to today. The starting figures come from National Vision's 10-K (or, for net cash and shares, its latest 10-Q) and the assumptions are yours: start from one of three example scenarios, then change any figure to see what it implies for a share, and how that compares with the last share price.

Value per share on three example scenarios, from National Vision's fiscal 2025 free cash flow of $73M, net cash of −$207M at January 3, 2026 and 81 million diluted shares, from its filings. The scenarios are fitted to National Vision: the base scenario's growth in years 1 to 5 is its revenue growth over the last 3 years, 6.5% a year; the cautious and optimistic ones are lower and higher, and growth in years 6 to 10 is halfway to the long-run rate. The base scenario's discount rate is 11%: 9% for a business of moderate risk (Specialty Stores), plus 1 point as a smaller company, worth $1.4B, plus 1 point for unsteady results (a loss in fiscal 2024); the cautious and optimistic ones use a point more and a point less. Select one to load it into the calculator. These are the model's arithmetic on those assumptions, not a forecast or a price target.

From the filings

Starting free cash flow, US$ millions

Cash from operations minus capital spending in fiscal 2025.

Net cash, US$ millions

Cash and short-term investments minus debt and finance leases at January 3, 2026. Negative means net debt.

Diluted shares, millions

Weighted-average diluted shares in fiscal 2025.

Your assumptions

Start from

Fitted to National Vision's own revenue growth, as above. Cautious: growth of 3.5% then 3% a year, 2% after year 10, a 12% discount rate. Base: growth of 6.5% then 4.5% a year, 2.5% after year 10, a 11% discount rate. Optimistic: growth of 10% then 6.5% a year, 3% after year 10, a 10% discount rate.

Free cash flow growth, years 1 to 5 (% a year)

Free cash flow growth, years 6 to 10 (% a year)

Growth after year 10 (% a year)Long-run growth forever after year 10. Usually close to inflation, and always below the discount rate.

Discount rate (% a year)The yearly return an investor wants for the risk. A higher rate gives a lower value.

Value per share on these assumptions

—

Last close, October 26, 2026: $17.80
Value on these assumptions, against the last close: —

Cash flows in years 1 to 10, valued today: —
Everything after year 10, valued today: —
Plus net cash: —
Share of value from after year 10: —

Projected free cash flow

US$ billions. Each column is one year's projected free cash flow, split into what it is worth today and the part removed by discounting.

Value todayRemoved by discounting

How the value changes with two assumptions

Value per share in US$, with the growth rates above. The highlighted cell matches the current assumptions.

How the model works. Free cash flow grows at the first rate for five years and the second rate for five more, and each year is discounted at the discount rate. Everything after year 10 is valued as year-10 cash flow × (1 + growth after year 10) ÷ (discount rate − growth after year 10), discounted back ten years. Net cash is added and the total is divided by diluted shares. The result depends entirely on the assumptions. It is not a forecast, a price target or a recommendation. The last close is the consolidated US closing price, from Databento.

Price-to-earnings (P/E) method

Another common way to value a company is to multiply its earnings per share by a price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple: the number of years of today's earnings an investor pays for a share. A higher multiple usually means investors expect earnings to grow. Choose a multiple, for example from similar companies, to see the value it gives.

Value per share on three example scenarios, from National Vision's earnings per share of $0.61 (over the last four quarters). Each grows earnings for a year at the cash flow scenarios' rates and applies a multiple to next year's earnings: 17.7×, the middle of National Vision's own P/E today, its peers' median and its sector's median (the Consumer Discretionary median) for the base scenario, 20% less and more for the cautious and optimistic ones. The price is brought back a year at 12%, 11% and 10%. Select one to load it into the calculator. These are the model's arithmetic on those assumptions, not a forecast or a price target.

Earnings per share, US$

Diluted earnings per share over the four quarters to July 4, 2026, from the 10-Qs and 10-K.

P/E multiple

P/E today is the last close divided by the latest earnings per share, the four quarters' where available. Peers: Sally Beauty, Five Below, Academy Sports + Outdoors.

Earnings growth in the years ahead (% a year) Starts at National Vision's revenue growth over the last 3 years, 6.5% a year, as the base scenario does.

Earnings per share in the years ahead, US$

Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5

Type your own estimate for any year; the years after it carry on at the growth rate.

Apply the multiple to earnings

A multiple on a future year's earnings gives the price then, brought back to today at the discount rate below.

Discount rate (% a year) The yearly return an investor wants for the risk, as in the cash flow model.

Value per share today at this multiple

—

Last close, October 26, 2026: $17.80
Value at this multiple, against the last close: —
National Vision's P/E at the last close: 29.2×

Company	Last close	Earnings per share	P/E today
National VisionEYE	$17.80	$0.61	29.2×
Five BelowFIVE	$230.00	$11.16	20.6×
Academy Sports + OutdoorsASO	$59.61	$5.99	10.0×
Sally BeautySBH	$17.43	$1.92	9.1×

How the P/E method works. Value per share is earnings per share times the multiple. On a future year's earnings, that gives the price in that year, which is brought back to today at the discount rate: price ÷ (1 + discount rate) for each year ahead. It is quick and easy to compare across companies, but it ignores debt and cash, and earnings can swing with one-off gains and charges, so a multiple says most about steady, profitable businesses. Like the cash flow model, the result depends entirely on the assumptions you choose. It is not a forecast, a price target or a recommendation.

Balance sheet

Fiscal year end	FY21	FY22	FY23	FY24	FY25
Cash and short-term investments	306	229	150	74	39
Debt incl. finance leases	570	568	461	350	246
Net debt (negative means net cash)	264	338	311	276	207
Net debt to EBITDA	1.0x	2.4x	2.7x	3.4x	1.4x
Debt to equity	0.6x	0.6x	0.6x	0.4x	0.3x
Interest coverage	6.8x	3.1x	2.1x	−0.8x	3.1x
Current ratio	1.5x	1.4x	1.0x	0.5x	0.6x
Quick ratio	1.1x	1.0x	0.7x	0.3x	0.3x

US$ millions unless stated, at each fiscal year end. Net debt to EBITDA is debt minus cash, divided by operating income before depreciation and amortization: roughly how many years of those earnings the net debt equals. Debt to equity is debt as a multiple of shareholders' equity. Interest coverage is operating income divided by interest expense. The current ratio is current assets over current liabilities; the quick ratio leaves out inventory.

Insider trades

Over the 12 months between October 27, 2025 and October 26, 2026, 1 insider bought $776,000 of National Vision shares on the open market, and 2 insiders sold $1.3 million, all of it under trading plans set up in advance.

Date	Insider	Trade	Shares	Price	Value	Filing
Jun 5, 2026	Michael J NicholsonDirector	Bought	50,000	$15.52	$776,000	Form 4
Mar 11, 2026	Alexander WilkesChief Executive Officer, Director	Sold plan	35,000	$26.54	$928,900	Form 4
Mar 6, 2026	Fahs L ReadeExecutive Chairman, Director	Sold plan	11,672	$29.58	$345,217	Form 4

Open-market purchases and sales by officers, directors and 10% owners, from their Form 4 filings with the SEC: one row per person, day and filing, at the day's average price. Grants, option exercises and shares withheld for tax aren't counted. Insiders buy and sell for many reasons, such as taxes, spreading their savings or a plan set up months earlier, so a trade on its own says little about where a company is heading. For information only, not investment advice. Insider trades at all companies

Piotroski F-score

The F-score counts how many of nine simple tests of profitability, funding and efficiency a company passed in a year (Piotroski, 2000). The more tests passed, the stronger the year: 8 or 9 is strong, 0 to 2 weak. Companies that report no gross profit are scored on the other eight.

Test	FY23	FY24	FY25
Net income is positive	Fail	Fail	Pass
Cash from operations is positive	Pass	Pass	Pass
Return on assets rose	Fail	Pass	Pass
Cash from operations exceeds net income	Pass	Pass	Pass
Debt fell relative to assets	Pass	Pass	Pass
Current ratio rose	Fail	Fail	Pass
Share count didn't rise	Pass	Pass	Fail
Gross margin rose	—	—	—
Revenue rose relative to assets	Pass	Pass	Pass
F-score	5 of 8	6 of 8	7 of 8
Accruals ratio	−10.7%	−7.8%	−5.8%

The accruals ratio is net income minus cash from operations, over average total assets.

Compare

Put National Vision side by side with any other company we cover: revenue, growth, margins, cash flow and returns, with ten years of charts.

Similar companies

Company	Year	Revenue growth	Operating margin	Free cash flow margin	Return on capital	Net debt to EBITDA	F-score	Compare
National Vision	FY25	9.0%	3.0%	3.7%	3.9%	1.4x	7
MarineMax	FY25	−5.0%	1.5%	0.5%	1.4%	11.3x	5	Compare
Sally Beauty	FY25	−0.4%	8.9%	4.7%	16.1%	1.7x	8	Compare
Five Below	FY25	22.9%	9.6%	8.6%	26.9%	−1.4x	7	Compare
Academy Sports + Outdoors	FY25	2.0%	8.5%	3.7%	17.6%	0.2x	7	Compare

Each company's latest fiscal year. Fiscal years end in different months, so the periods don't line up exactly. Free cash flow margin is free cash flow as a share of revenue. Net debt to EBITDA is explained under the balance sheet, and the F-score above.

10 years of figures

Fiscal year	FY16	FY17	FY18	FY19	FY20	FY21	FY22	FY23	FY24	FY25
Income statement
Revenue	1,196	1,375	1,537	1,724	1,712	2,080	1,645	1,756	1,823	1,988
Revenue growth	12.6%	15.0%	11.8%	12.2%	−0.7%	21.5%	−20.9%	6.8%	3.8%	9.0%
Gross profit	651	738	823	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Research and development	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Operating income	64	64	42	74	87	175	53	24	−10	59
Net income	13	43	24	33	36	128	42	−66	−28	30
Diluted EPS (US$)	0.23	0.70	0.30	0.40	0.44	1.43	0.52	−0.84	−0.36	0.37
Diluted shares (millions)	57	62	79	82	83	96	80	79	79	81
Cash flow
Cash from operations	98	90	107	165	235	259	119	173	134	146
Capital expenditure	90	93	104	101	77	96	114	115	96	73
Free cash flow	8	−3	2	64	158	163	6	58	38	73
Dividends paid	0	171	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Share buybacks	0	0	2	26	1	73	84	28	3	3
Acquisitions	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Stock-based compensation	4	5	21	13	11	15	14	20	17	24
Balance sheet at fiscal year end
Cash and short-term investments	5	4	17	39	374	306	229	150	74	39
Debt incl. finance leases	746	569	578	570	655	570	568	461	350	246
Total assets	1,531	1,582	1,661	2,033	2,334	2,293	2,291	2,172	2,008	1,984
Total liabilities	1,132	927	918	1,256	1,427	1,367	1,390	1,343	1,191	1,114
Shareholders' equity	400	655	743	776	906	926	901	829	816	870
Margins and ratios
Gross margin	54.5%	53.7%	53.6%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Operating margin	5.4%	4.7%	2.8%	4.3%	5.1%	8.4%	3.2%	1.4%	−0.6%	3.0%
Net margin	1.1%	3.1%	1.5%	1.9%	2.1%	6.2%	2.6%	−3.8%	−1.6%	1.5%
Free cash flow margin	0.6%	−0.2%	0.1%	3.7%	9.2%	7.9%	0.3%	3.3%	2.1%	3.7%
Return on capital	—	5.5%	3.4%	5.6%	6.5%	12.6%	3.0%	1.0%	−0.7%	3.9%
Return on equity	—	8.2%	3.4%	4.3%	4.3%	14.0%	4.6%	−7.6%	−3.5%	3.5%
Return on assets	—	2.8%	1.5%	1.8%	1.7%	5.5%	1.8%	−3.0%	−1.4%	1.5%
Net debt to EBITDA	6.3x	4.5x	4.8x	3.3x	1.6x	1.0x	2.4x	2.7x	3.4x	1.4x

US$ millions unless stated. Where a later 10-K restated a year, the latest filed figure is shown. Download all figures (CSV, US$ millions)

Source: National Vision's Form 10-K filings, from SEC EDGAR. For information only, not investment advice. The Filing Desk is not affiliated with National Vision.