Harley-Davidson

HOG · NYSE · Consumer Discretionary · Financials, fiscal 2016 to 2025

HOG · Last close · October 26, 2026

$28.85

Harley-Davidson's revenue fell 13.8% to $4.5 billion in fiscal 2025. Its operating margin was 8.6%, up from 8.0% a year earlier. Free cash flow was $415 million, down 52.1%. It paid out $440 million in dividends and buybacks, 106% of free cash flow. The diluted share count fell 8.3%.

Harley-Davidson, Inc. Latest fiscal year ended December 31, 2025 10-K filed February 26, 2026 · 0000793952-26-000011 Updated October 9, 2026

Revenue

$4.5B

13.8%

Operating margin

8.6%

0.6 pts

Net income

$339M

25.6%

Free cash flow

$415M

52.1%

Return on capital

4.8%

0.7 pts

Market cap

$3.1B

Oct 26 close

P/E

15.9x

On $1.82 EPS, 4 qtrs

Operating margin is operating income as a share of revenue. Free cash flow is cash from operations minus capital spending. Return on capital is after-tax operating income as a share of the money invested in the business: debt plus equity, minus cash. Market cap is the last closing share price times the latest diluted share count, so it is approximate. P/E is the last close divided by diluted earnings per share over the last four quarters, or the latest fiscal year where the quarters aren't available; there is none when the company made a loss.

What Harley-Davidson does

Harley-Davidson designs, makes and sells motorcycles, along with parts, accessories and apparel, and it licenses its trademarks for use on other products. Its motorcycles come in six categories: Grand American Touring, Trike, Cruiser, Sport, Lightweight and Adventure Touring. It sells mainly through independent dealers, and at the end of 2025 it had 1,174 dealership points, 554 of them in the U.S. In 2025, approximately 79% of dealer retail sales of its new motorcycles were in the U.S. and European markets for motorcycles over 600cc.

The company reports three segments. Harley-Davidson Motor Company covers the motorcycles and related products. LiveWire sells electric motorcycles, electric balance bikes for kids under the STACYC brand, and related products. Harley-Davidson Financial Services (HDFS) finances dealers' inventory and lends to people buying Harley-Davidson and LiveWire motorcycles, mainly in the U.S. and Canada; it financed 68.4% of new Harley-Davidson motorcycles retailed by U.S. dealers in 2025. The company says motorcycle makers compete on features, styling, price, quality, financing and dealer networks.

As of December 31, 2025, the company had approximately 5,500 employees, 80.6% of them in the U.S. Most of its manufacturing is in the U.S., with facilities also in Thailand and Brazil. In 2025 HDFS sold a collective 9.8% of its common equity to KKR and PIMCO, sold them most of its existing consumer retail loans, and began selling up to two-thirds of its new retail loans. Artie Starrs became chief executive on October 1, 2025, and the company is preparing a new strategic plan.

Its biggest risks, as it describes them

Failing to develop and launch new, compliant products while keeping the premium price its motorcycles command over competitors'.
Its reliance on independent dealers and distributors to sell its products to riders.
More used motorcycles for sale, or lower used prices, could cut dealers' sales of new ones.
LiveWire, a new entrant in electric vehicles, may not control its costs or raise enough money to keep operating.
The deals between HDFS and KKR and PIMCO may not bring the benefits the company wants.

From Harley-Davidson's annual report on Form 10-K, filed February 26, 2026, in our words; the 10-K has the full description and every risk factor. Updated with each new 10-K.

Charts show fiscal years, from the 10-K filings.

Revenue and margins

Revenue

US$ billions, fiscal years

Margins

Percent of revenue

GrossOperatingNetFree cash flow

Net income and earnings per share

From fiscal 2016 to 2025, earnings per share fell 3.5% a year and net income 7.6% a year, while buybacks cut the share count by 33%.

Net income

US$ billions, fiscal years; loss years in red.

Diluted earnings per share

US$ per share, fiscal years, restated for any stock splits; loss years in red.

Returns on capital

Return on capital and on equity

Percent. Return on capital is after-tax operating income over the money invested in the business (debt plus equity, minus cash); return on equity is net income over shareholders' equity. Both use the average of opening and closing balances.

Return on capitalReturn on equity

Cash flow

Free cash flow

US$ billions. Cash from operations minus capital expenditure; negative years in red.

Payouts and share count

Dividends and buybacks

US$ billions, cash paid in each fiscal year

DividendsShare buybacks

Diluted share count

Weighted-average diluted shares, millions

Valuation

Two ways to value Harley-Davidson yourself, both starting from its filings: a discounted cash flow model and the price-to-earnings method.

Discounted cash flow (DCF)

A discounted cash flow (DCF) model values a business as the cash it may generate in future, discounted back to today. The starting figures come from Harley-Davidson's 10-K (or, for net cash and shares, its latest 10-Q) and the assumptions are yours: start from one of three example scenarios, then change any figure to see what it implies for a share, and how that compares with the last share price.

Value per share on three example scenarios, from Harley-Davidson's fiscal 2025 free cash flow of $415M, net cash of $125M at December 31, 2025 and 121 million diluted shares, from its filings. The scenarios are fitted to Harley-Davidson: the base scenario's growth in years 1 to 5 is its revenue growth over the last 3 years, -8.1% a year, kept between 0% and 20%; the cautious and optimistic ones are lower and higher, and growth in years 6 to 10 is halfway to the long-run rate. The base scenario's discount rate is 11%: 9% for a business of moderate risk (Motorcycle Manufacturers), plus 1 point as a smaller company, worth $3.1B, plus 1 point for unsteady results (revenue fell in two of the last five years); the cautious and optimistic ones use a point more and a point less. Select one to load it into the calculator. These are the model's arithmetic on those assumptions, not a forecast or a price target.

From the filings

Starting free cash flow, US$ millions

Cash from operations minus capital spending in fiscal 2025.

Net cash, US$ millions

Cash and short-term investments minus debt and finance leases at December 31, 2025. Negative means net debt.

Diluted shares, millions

Weighted-average diluted shares in fiscal 2025.

Your assumptions

Start from

Fitted to Harley-Davidson's own revenue growth, as above. Cautious: growth of -2% then 0% a year, 2% after year 10, a 12% discount rate. Base: growth of 0% then 1% a year, 2.5% after year 10, a 11% discount rate. Optimistic: growth of 2% then 2.5% a year, 3% after year 10, a 10% discount rate.

Free cash flow growth, years 1 to 5 (% a year)

Free cash flow growth, years 6 to 10 (% a year)

Growth after year 10 (% a year)Long-run growth forever after year 10. Usually close to inflation, and always below the discount rate.

Discount rate (% a year)The yearly return an investor wants for the risk. A higher rate gives a lower value.

Value per share on these assumptions

—

Last close, October 26, 2026: $28.85
Value on these assumptions, against the last close: —

Cash flows in years 1 to 10, valued today: —
Everything after year 10, valued today: —
Plus net cash: —
Share of value from after year 10: —

Projected free cash flow

US$ billions. Each column is one year's projected free cash flow, split into what it is worth today and the part removed by discounting.

Value todayRemoved by discounting

How the value changes with two assumptions

Value per share in US$, with the growth rates above. The highlighted cell matches the current assumptions.

How the model works. Free cash flow grows at the first rate for five years and the second rate for five more, and each year is discounted at the discount rate. Everything after year 10 is valued as year-10 cash flow × (1 + growth after year 10) ÷ (discount rate − growth after year 10), discounted back ten years. Net cash is added and the total is divided by diluted shares. The result depends entirely on the assumptions. It is not a forecast, a price target or a recommendation. The last close is the consolidated US closing price, from Databento.

Price-to-earnings (P/E) method

Another common way to value a company is to multiply its earnings per share by a price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple: the number of years of today's earnings an investor pays for a share. A higher multiple usually means investors expect earnings to grow. Choose a multiple, for example from similar companies, to see the value it gives.

Value per share on three example scenarios, from Harley-Davidson's earnings per share of $1.82 (over the last four quarters). Each grows earnings for a year at the cash flow scenarios' rates and applies a multiple to next year's earnings: 16.7×, the middle of Harley-Davidson's own P/E today, its peers' median and its sector's median (its peers' median) for the base scenario, 20% less and more for the cautious and optimistic ones. The price is brought back a year at 12%, 11% and 10%. Select one to load it into the calculator. These are the model's arithmetic on those assumptions, not a forecast or a price target.

Earnings per share, US$

Diluted earnings per share over the four quarters to June 30, 2026, from the 10-Qs and 10-K.

P/E multiple

P/E today is the last close divided by the latest earnings per share, the four quarters' where available. Peers: M/I Homes, Dream Finders Homes, Service Corp Intl, Floor & Decor.

Earnings growth in the years ahead (% a year) Starts at Harley-Davidson's revenue growth over the last 3 years, -8.1% a year, kept between 0% and 20%, as the base scenario does.

Earnings per share in the years ahead, US$

Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5

Type your own estimate for any year; the years after it carry on at the growth rate.

Apply the multiple to earnings

A multiple on a future year's earnings gives the price then, brought back to today at the discount rate below.

Discount rate (% a year) The yearly return an investor wants for the risk, as in the cash flow model.

Value per share today at this multiple

—

Last close, October 26, 2026: $28.85
Value at this multiple, against the last close: —
Harley-Davidson's P/E at the last close: 15.9×

Company	Last close	Earnings per share	P/E today
Floor & DecorFND	$47.38	$2.15	22.0×
Service Corp IntlSCI	$82.36	$3.82	21.6×
Harley-DavidsonHOG	$28.85	$1.82	15.9×
M/I HomesMHO	$124.53	$10.55	11.8×
Dream Finders HomesDFH	$10.30	$1.43	7.2×

How the P/E method works. Value per share is earnings per share times the multiple. On a future year's earnings, that gives the price in that year, which is brought back to today at the discount rate: price ÷ (1 + discount rate) for each year ahead. It is quick and easy to compare across companies, but it ignores debt and cash, and earnings can swing with one-off gains and charges, so a multiple says most about steady, profitable businesses. Like the cash flow model, the result depends entirely on the assumptions you choose. It is not a forecast, a price target or a recommendation.

Balance sheet

Fiscal year end	FY21	FY22	FY23	FY24	FY25
Cash and short-term investments	1,875	1,433	1,534	1,590	3,092
Debt incl. finance leases	6,889	6,912	7,126	6,960	2,967
Net debt (negative means net cash)	5,015	5,479	5,592	5,371	−125
Net debt to EBITDA	5.1x	5.2x	6.0x	9.3x	−0.2x
Debt to equity	2.7x	2.4x	2.2x	2.2x	0.9x
Interest coverage	26.6x	29.1x	25.3x	13.6x	11.6x
Current ratio	1.4x	1.3x	1.5x	1.4x	2.1x
Quick ratio	1.1x	1.1x	1.2x	1.2x	1.8x

US$ millions unless stated, at each fiscal year end. Net debt to EBITDA is debt minus cash, divided by operating income before depreciation and amortization: roughly how many years of those earnings the net debt equals. Debt to equity is debt as a multiple of shareholders' equity. Interest coverage is operating income divided by interest expense. The current ratio is current assets over current liabilities; the quick ratio leaves out inventory.

Insider trades

Over the 12 months between October 27, 2025 and October 26, 2026, 5 insiders bought $1.9 million of Harley-Davidson shares on the open market, and 5 insiders sold $842,723, $272,783 of it under trading plans set up in advance.

Date	Insider	Trade	Shares	Price	Value	Filing
Oct 1, 2026	Jonathan R RootCFO and CCO	Sold plan	1,559	$24.43	$38,086	Form 4
Sep 1, 2026	Jonathan R RootCFO and CCO	Sold plan	1,554	$27.46	$42,673	Form 4
Aug 11, 2026	Gayle LittletonCLO, CCO, CAO & Corp Sec	Bought	7,500	$26.38	$197,850	Form 4
Aug 10, 2026	Artie StarrsPresident & CEO, Director	Bought	10,000	$25.89	$258,900	Form 4
Aug 3, 2026	Jonathan R RootCFO and CCO	Sold plan	1,554	$24.88	$38,664	Form 4
Jul 31, 2026	Daniel J NovaDirector	Bought	40,000	$24.57	$982,800	Form 4
Jul 1, 2026	Jonathan R RootCFO and CCO	Sold plan	1,554	$24.44	$37,980	Form 4
Jun 1, 2026	Jonathan R RootCFO and CCO	Sold plan	1,554	$23.87	$37,094	Form 4
May 19, 2026	Jonathan R RootCFO and CCO	Sold plan	1,554	$24.21	$37,622	Form 4
May 11, 2026	Paul J KrauseChief Legal Officer	Sold plan	1,564	$26.00	$40,664	Form 4
Mar 12, 2026	Charles DoSr. Vice President, Hdfsi	Sold	4,241	$18.10	$76,762	Form 4
Mar 9, 2026	Artie StarrsPresident & CEO, Director	Bought	15,000	$19.10	$286,500	Form 4

The latest 12 of 17 trades. Open-market purchases and sales by officers, directors and 10% owners, from their Form 4 filings with the SEC: one row per person, day and filing, at the day's average price. Grants, option exercises and shares withheld for tax aren't counted. Insiders buy and sell for many reasons, such as taxes, spreading their savings or a plan set up months earlier, so a trade on its own says little about where a company is heading. For information only, not investment advice. Insider trades at all companies

Piotroski F-score

The F-score counts how many of nine simple tests of profitability, funding and efficiency a company passed in a year (Piotroski, 2000). The more tests passed, the stronger the year: 8 or 9 is strong, 0 to 2 weak. Companies that report no gross profit are scored on the other eight.

Test	FY23	FY24	FY25
Net income is positive	Pass	Pass	Pass
Cash from operations is positive	Pass	Pass	Pass
Return on assets rose	Fail	Fail	Fail
Cash from operations exceeds net income	Pass	Pass	Pass
Debt fell relative to assets	Pass	Pass	Pass
Current ratio rose	Pass	Fail	Pass
Share count didn't rise	Pass	Pass	Pass
Gross margin rose	Pass	Fail	Fail
Revenue rose relative to assets	Fail	Fail	Fail
F-score	7 of 9	5 of 9	6 of 9
Accruals ratio	−0.4%	−5.1%	−2.3%

The accruals ratio is net income minus cash from operations, over average total assets.

Compare

Put Harley-Davidson side by side with any other company we cover: revenue, growth, margins, cash flow and returns, with ten years of charts.

Similar companies

Company	Year	Revenue growth	Operating margin	Free cash flow margin	Return on capital	Net debt to EBITDA	F-score	Compare
Harley-Davidson	FY25	−13.8%	8.6%	9.3%	4.8%	−0.2x	6
M/I Homes	FY25	−1.9%	11.5%	2.9%	—	—	—	Compare
Dream Finders Homes	FY25	−2.9%	—	−2.9%	17.2%	2.4x	—	Compare
Service Corp Intl	FY25	2.9%	22.7%	12.9%	11.3%	4.0x	7	Compare
Floor & Decor	FY25	5.1%	5.8%	1.4%	9.3%	−0.1x	6	Compare

Each company's latest fiscal year. Fiscal years end in different months, so the periods don't line up exactly. Free cash flow margin is free cash flow as a share of revenue. Net debt to EBITDA is explained under the balance sheet, and the F-score above.

10 years of figures

Fiscal year	FY16	FY17	FY18	FY19	FY20	FY21	FY22	FY23	FY24	FY25
Income statement
Revenue	5,996	5,647	5,717	5,362	4,054	5,336	5,755	5,836	5,187	4,473
Revenue growth	0.0%	−5.8%	1.2%	−6.2%	−24.4%	31.6%	7.8%	1.4%	−11.1%	−13.8%
Gross profit	2,570	2,375	2,365	2,132	1,619	2,093	2,351	2,514	2,181	1,731
Research and development	172	175	192	216	202	175	159	159	—	—
Operating income	1,046	882	714	556	10	823	909	779	417	387
Net income	692	522	532	424	1	650	741	707	455	339
Diluted EPS (US$)	3.83	3.02	3.19	2.68	0.01	4.19	4.96	4.87	3.44	2.78
Diluted shares (millions)	180	173	166	158	154	155	149	145	132	121
Cash flow
Cash from operations	1,174	1,005	1,206	868	1,178	976	548	755	1,064	569
Capital expenditure	256	206	214	181	131	120	152	207	197	154
Free cash flow	918	799	992	687	1,047	856	397	547	867	415
Dividends paid	252	252	246	237	68	92	93	96	91	86
Share buybacks	465	465	391	296	8	12	339	364	460	353
Acquisitions	0	0	0	7	0	0	0	0	0	0
Stock-based compensation	32	32	36	34	24	42	54	83	49	32
Balance sheet at fiscal year end
Cash and short-term investments	760	688	1,214	834	3,257	1,875	1,433	1,534	1,590	3,092
Debt incl. finance leases	6,808	6,988	7,599	7,445	8,987	6,889	6,912	7,126	6,960	2,967
Total assets	9,890	9,973	10,666	10,528	12,011	11,051	11,492	12,141	11,882	8,045
Total liabilities	7,970	8,128	8,892	8,724	10,288	8,498	8,586	8,888	8,723	4,888
Shareholders' equity	1,920	1,844	1,774	1,804	1,723	2,553	2,904	3,253	3,166	3,141
Margins and ratios
Gross margin	42.9%	42.0%	41.4%	39.8%	39.9%	39.2%	40.9%	43.1%	42.0%	38.7%
Operating margin	17.4%	15.6%	12.5%	10.4%	0.2%	15.4%	15.8%	13.3%	8.0%	8.6%
Net margin	11.5%	9.2%	9.3%	7.9%	0.0%	12.2%	12.9%	12.1%	8.8%	7.6%
Free cash flow margin	15.3%	14.1%	17.4%	12.8%	25.8%	16.0%	6.9%	9.4%	16.7%	9.3%
Return on capital	8.9%	6.6%	6.8%	5.1%	0.1%	8.7%	9.1%	7.2%	4.1%	4.8%
Return on equity	36.8%	27.7%	29.4%	23.7%	0.1%	30.4%	27.2%	22.9%	14.2%	10.7%
Return on assets	7.0%	5.2%	5.2%	4.0%	0.0%	5.6%	6.6%	6.0%	3.8%	3.4%
Net debt to EBITDA	4.8x	5.7x	6.5x	8.4x	29.3x	5.1x	5.2x	6.0x	9.3x	−0.2x

US$ millions unless stated. Where a later 10-K restated a year, the latest filed figure is shown. Download all figures (CSV, US$ millions)

Source: Harley-Davidson's Form 10-K filings, from SEC EDGAR. For information only, not investment advice. The Filing Desk is not affiliated with Harley-Davidson.