Alaska Air Group

ALK · NYSE · Industrials · Financials, fiscal 2016 to 2025

ALK · Last close · October 26, 2026

$34.95

Alaska Air Group's revenue rose 21.3% to $14.2 billion in fiscal 2025. Its operating margin was 2.1%, down from 4.9% a year earlier. Free cash flow was $940 million, down 19.7%. It paid out $570 million in dividends and buybacks, 61% of free cash flow. The diluted share count fell 6.6%.

ALASKA AIR GROUP, INC. Latest fiscal year ended December 31, 2025 10-K filed February 12, 2026 · 0000766421-26-000010 Updated October 12, 2026

Revenue

$14.2B

21.3%

Operating margin

2.1%

2.7 pts

Net income

$100M

74.7%

Free cash flow

$940M

19.7%

Return on capital

2.9%

4.2 pts

Market cap

$3.9B

Oct 26 close

P/E

—

Loss: no P/E

Operating margin is operating income as a share of revenue. Free cash flow is cash from operations minus capital spending. Return on capital is after-tax operating income as a share of the money invested in the business: debt plus equity, minus cash. Market cap is the last closing share price times the latest diluted share count, so it is approximate. P/E is the last close divided by diluted earnings per share over the last four quarters, or the latest fiscal year where the quarters aren't available; there is none when the company made a loss.

Charts show fiscal years, from the 10-K filings.

Revenue and margins

Revenue

US$ billions, fiscal years

Margins

Percent of revenue

GrossOperatingNetFree cash flow

Net income and earnings per share

From fiscal 2016 to 2025, earnings per share fell 20.3% a year and net income 20.6% a year, while buybacks cut the share count by 4%.

Net income

US$ billions, fiscal years; loss years in red.

Diluted earnings per share

US$ per share, fiscal years, restated for any stock splits; loss years in red.

Returns on capital

Return on capital and on equity

Percent. Return on capital is after-tax operating income over the money invested in the business (debt plus equity, minus cash); return on equity is net income over shareholders' equity. Both use the average of opening and closing balances.

Return on capitalReturn on equity

Cash flow

Free cash flow

US$ billions. Cash from operations minus capital expenditure; negative years in red.

Payouts and share count

Dividends and buybacks

US$ billions, cash paid in each fiscal year

DividendsShare buybacks

Diluted share count

Weighted-average diluted shares, millions

Valuation

Two ways to value Alaska Air Group yourself, both starting from its filings: a discounted cash flow model and the price-to-earnings method.

Discounted cash flow (DCF)

A discounted cash flow (DCF) model values a business as the cash it may generate in future, discounted back to today. The starting figures come from Alaska Air Group's 10-K (or, for net cash and shares, its latest 10-Q) and the assumptions are yours: start from one of three example scenarios, then change any figure to see what it implies for a share, and how that compares with the last share price.

Value per share on three example scenarios, from Alaska Air Group's fiscal 2025 free cash flow of $940M, net cash of −$3.4B at December 31, 2025 and 120 million diluted shares, from its filings. The scenarios are fitted to Alaska Air Group: the base scenario's growth in years 1 to 5 is its revenue growth over the last 3 years, 13.9% a year; the cautious and optimistic ones are lower and higher, and growth in years 6 to 10 is halfway to the long-run rate. The base scenario's discount rate is 12%: 11% for a cyclical or higher-risk business (Passenger Airlines), plus 1 point as a smaller company, worth $3.9B; the cautious and optimistic ones use a point more and a point less. Select one to load it into the calculator. These are the model's arithmetic on those assumptions, not a forecast or a price target.

From the filings

Starting free cash flow, US$ millions

Cash from operations minus capital spending in fiscal 2025.

Net cash, US$ millions

Cash and short-term investments minus debt and finance leases at December 31, 2025. Negative means net debt.

Diluted shares, millions

Weighted-average diluted shares in fiscal 2025.

Your assumptions

Start from

Fitted to Alaska Air Group's own revenue growth, as above. Cautious: growth of 7% then 4.5% a year, 2% after year 10, a 13% discount rate. Base: growth of 14% then 8% a year, 2.5% after year 10, a 12% discount rate. Optimistic: growth of 21% then 12% a year, 3% after year 10, a 11% discount rate.

Free cash flow growth, years 1 to 5 (% a year)

Free cash flow growth, years 6 to 10 (% a year)

Growth after year 10 (% a year)Long-run growth forever after year 10. Usually close to inflation, and always below the discount rate.

Discount rate (% a year)The yearly return an investor wants for the risk. A higher rate gives a lower value.

Value per share on these assumptions

—

Last close, October 26, 2026: $34.95
Value on these assumptions, against the last close: —

Cash flows in years 1 to 10, valued today: —
Everything after year 10, valued today: —
Plus net cash: —
Share of value from after year 10: —

Projected free cash flow

US$ billions. Each column is one year's projected free cash flow, split into what it is worth today and the part removed by discounting.

Value todayRemoved by discounting

How the value changes with two assumptions

Value per share in US$, with the growth rates above. The highlighted cell matches the current assumptions.

How the model works. Free cash flow grows at the first rate for five years and the second rate for five more, and each year is discounted at the discount rate. Everything after year 10 is valued as year-10 cash flow × (1 + growth after year 10) ÷ (discount rate − growth after year 10), discounted back ten years. Net cash is added and the total is divided by diluted shares. The result depends entirely on the assumptions. It is not a forecast, a price target or a recommendation. The last close is the consolidated US closing price, from Databento.

Price-to-earnings (P/E) method

Another common way to value a company is to multiply its earnings per share by a price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple: the number of years of today's earnings an investor pays for a share. A higher multiple usually means investors expect earnings to grow. Choose a multiple, for example from similar companies, to see the value it gives.

The P/E method needs positive earnings, and Alaska Air Group's latest diluted earnings per share were negative or zero.

Balance sheet

Fiscal year end	FY21	FY22	FY23	FY24	FY25
Cash and short-term investments	3,116	2,417	1,791	2,504	2,123
Debt incl. finance leases	2,539	2,159	2,535	4,988	5,555
Net debt (negative means net cash)	−577	−258	744	2,484	3,432
Net debt to EBITDA	−0.5x	−0.5x	0.9x	2.1x	3.1x
Debt to equity	0.7x	0.6x	0.6x	1.1x	1.4x
Interest coverage	5.3x	0.7x	3.3x	3.3x	1.1x
Current ratio	1.0x	0.7x	0.6x	0.6x	0.5x
Quick ratio	1.0x	0.7x	0.6x	0.6x	0.5x

US$ millions unless stated, at each fiscal year end. Net debt to EBITDA is debt minus cash, divided by operating income before depreciation and amortization: roughly how many years of those earnings the net debt equals. Debt to equity is debt as a multiple of shareholders' equity. Interest coverage is operating income divided by interest expense. The current ratio is current assets over current liabilities; the quick ratio leaves out inventory.

Insider trades

Over the 12 months between October 27, 2025 and October 26, 2026, 1 insider bought $1.0 million of Alaska Air Group shares on the open market, and 3 insiders sold $3.5 million.

Date	Insider	Trade	Shares	Price	Value	Filing
Aug 20, 2026	Benito MinicucciCEO and President, Director	Bought	25,000	$40.06	$1.0 million	Form 4
Aug 3, 2026	Andrew R HarrisonEVP and CCO	Sold	5,300	$49.67	$263,251	Form 4
Feb 18, 2026	Shane R TackettEVP and CFO	Sold	24,000	$57.15	$1.4 million	Form 4
Feb 18, 2026	Andrew R HarrisonEVP and CCO	Sold	5,500	$56.63	$311,465	Form 4
Feb 13, 2026	Andrew R HarrisonEVP and CCO	Sold	14,500	$54.81	$794,745	Form 4
Feb 9, 2026	Kyle B LevineEVP Corp Pub Aff & Chf Leg Off	Sold	2,945	$60.02	$176,759	Form 4
Feb 5, 2026	Shane R TackettEVP and CFO	Sold	10,000	$55.00	$550,000	Form 4

Open-market purchases and sales by officers, directors and 10% owners, from their Form 4 filings with the SEC: one row per person, day and filing, at the day's average price. Grants, option exercises and shares withheld for tax aren't counted. Insiders buy and sell for many reasons, such as taxes, spreading their savings or a plan set up months earlier, so a trade on its own says little about where a company is heading. For information only, not investment advice. Insider trades at all companies

Piotroski F-score

The F-score counts how many of nine simple tests of profitability, funding and efficiency a company passed in a year (Piotroski, 2000). The more tests passed, the stronger the year: 8 or 9 is strong, 0 to 2 weak. Companies that report no gross profit are scored on the other eight.

Test	FY23	FY24	FY25
Net income is positive	Pass	Pass	Pass
Cash from operations is positive	Pass	Pass	Pass
Return on assets rose	Pass	Pass	Fail
Cash from operations exceeds net income	Pass	Pass	Pass
Debt fell relative to assets	Fail	Fail	Pass
Current ratio rose	Fail	Pass	Fail
Share count didn't rise	Fail	Pass	Pass
Gross margin rose	—	—	—
Revenue rose relative to assets	Pass	Pass	Fail
F-score	5 of 8	7 of 8	5 of 8
Accruals ratio	−5.7%	−6.2%	−5.7%

The accruals ratio is net income minus cash from operations, over average total assets.

Compare

Put Alaska Air Group side by side with any other company we cover: revenue, growth, margins, cash flow and returns, with ten years of charts.

Similar companies

Company	Year	Revenue growth	Operating margin	Free cash flow margin	Return on capital	Net debt to EBITDA	F-score	Compare
Alaska Air Group	FY25	21.3%	2.1%	6.6%	2.9%	3.1x	5
JetBlue	FY25	−2.3%	−4.1%	−12.9%	−3.6%	19.8x	3	Compare
Southwest Airlines	FY25	2.1%	1.5%	−3.0%	3.7%	0.9x	7	Compare
American Airlines Group	FY25	0.8%	2.7%	−1.2%	5.7%	5.3x	5	Compare
United Airlines	FY25	3.5%	8.0%	4.3%	15.3%	1.2x	6	Compare

Each company's latest fiscal year. Fiscal years end in different months, so the periods don't line up exactly. Free cash flow margin is free cash flow as a share of revenue. Net debt to EBITDA is explained under the balance sheet, and the F-score above.

10 years of figures

Fiscal year	FY16	FY17	FY18	FY19	FY20	FY21	FY22	FY23	FY24	FY25
Income statement
Revenue	5,925	7,894	8,264	8,781	3,566	6,176	9,646	10,426	11,735	14,239
Revenue growth	—	33.2%	4.7%	6.3%	−59.4%	73.2%	56.2%	8.1%	12.6%	21.3%
Gross profit	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Research and development	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Operating income	1,306	1,208	643	1,063	−1,775	685	70	394	570	303
Net income	797	960	437	769	−1,324	478	58	235	395	100
Diluted EPS (US$)	6.41	7.75	3.52	6.19	−10.72	3.77	0.45	1.83	3.08	0.83
Diluted shares (millions)	124	124	124	124	123	127	128	129	128	120
Cash flow
Cash from operations	1,386	1,590	1,195	1,722	−234	1,030	1,418	1,050	1,464	1,249
Capital expenditure	678	1,026	960	696	222	292	1,671	1,494	293	309
Free cash flow	708	564	235	1,026	−456	738	−253	−444	1,171	940
Dividends paid	136	148	158	173	45	0	0	0	0	0
Share buybacks	193	75	50	75	31	0	0	137	312	570
Acquisitions	1,951	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	659	0
Stock-based compensation	26	55	47	29	24	51	42	85	63	10
Balance sheet at fiscal year end
Cash and short-term investments	1,580	1,621	1,236	1,521	3,346	3,116	2,417	1,791	2,504	2,123
Debt incl. finance leases	2,964	2,569	2,103	1,499	3,495	2,539	2,159	2,535	4,988	5,555
Total assets	9,962	10,746	10,912	12,993	14,046	13,951	14,186	14,613	19,768	20,361
Total liabilities	7,218	7,286	7,161	8,662	11,058	10,150	10,370	10,500	15,396	16,243
Shareholders' equity	2,744	3,460	3,751	4,331	2,988	3,801	3,816	4,113	4,372	4,118
Margins and ratios
Gross margin	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Operating margin	22.0%	15.3%	7.8%	12.1%	−49.8%	11.1%	0.7%	3.8%	4.9%	2.1%
Net margin	13.4%	12.2%	5.3%	8.8%	−37.1%	7.7%	0.6%	2.2%	3.4%	0.7%
Free cash flow margin	11.9%	7.1%	2.8%	11.7%	−12.8%	11.9%	−2.6%	−4.3%	10.0%	6.6%
Return on capital	26.8%	23.4%	10.6%	18.0%	−37.7%	16.4%	1.5%	6.8%	7.0%	2.9%
Return on equity	30.9%	30.9%	12.1%	19.0%	−36.2%	14.1%	1.5%	5.9%	9.3%	2.4%
Return on assets	9.7%	9.3%	4.0%	6.4%	−9.8%	3.4%	0.4%	1.6%	2.3%	0.5%
Net debt to EBITDA	0.8x	0.6x	0.8x	−0.0x	—	−0.5x	−0.5x	0.9x	2.1x	3.1x

US$ millions unless stated. Where a later 10-K restated a year, the latest filed figure is shown. Download all figures (CSV, US$ millions)

Source: Alaska Air Group's Form 10-K filings, from SEC EDGAR. For information only, not investment advice. The Filing Desk is not affiliated with Alaska Air Group.